What are the chances of Saint Louis beating Kamehameha a third time in the same season?

Based on history, 20 percent.

Only four days after the Crusaders beat the Warriors, 17-7, and created a three-way tie in the three-team Interscholastic League of Honolulu Division I football standings to end the regular season, they meet for the third time this season at 7 tonight at Aloha Stadium.

Tonight's winner advances to the league championship game against Punahou on Monday. The champion gets the ILH's lone berth in the Division I state tournament.

Saint Louis swept the two-game season series from Kamehameha, which swept Punahou, which swept Saint Louis.

In the 85 years Kamehameha and Saint Louis have played football against each other, five times they met three times in a season. In three of those seasons — 1997, 1998 and 1999 — playoffs were held because each won one round of the two-round format. In 2002, they split a season series, ending with 6-1 records and had to play off for the title. Saint Louis won 2 of 3 in all four cases, albeit it forfeited a regular-season meeting in 1998 as part of a self-imposed penalty for breaking school rules on a Mainland trip.

But in 1970, Saint Louis won two regular-season meetings and then beat Kamehameha again in a postseason exhibition to go 3-0. Ironically, that year was the only time in the 102-year history of the league that co-champions were crowned. Punahou and Saint Louis each went 7-1. It was the first year of the modern ILH, or when the five public schools left to join the O'ahu Interscholastic Association. A playoff wasn't necessary because there was no further game scheduled. The Prep Bowl was still three years away, and there was no state tournament.

Which leads to the most interesting and tightest finish in the oldest high school league in the state.

It began with the Hawai'i High School Athletic Association football tournament committee awarding the OIA and Maui Interscholastic League champions byes for the six-team tournament, which starts next weekend. The ILH, perceived by rankings in the media as the strongest league in the state, had the bye last year. But even though there were multiple scenarios that would necessitate more than one open week for playoffs, the ILH left only the weekend before the state tournament for playoffs. That is how the ILH got stuck playing two playoff games within six days.

It also is the reason the two ILH playoff games are using eight-minute quarters, rather than the usual 12 minutes. Junior varsity games use 10-minute quarters. That was one of the compromises ILH administrators made when developing this setup.

"Mainly, it was a safety issue," Punahou athletic director Tom Holden said. "Playing two full games in a short period of time would put a team at a disadvantage."

To give the ILH state representative at least an extra day of rest, the league requested, with approval of the other leagues, to have its opening-round game moved from Friday to Saturday, HHSAA executive director Keith Amemiya said. In previous years, the opening-round games were held on Fridays.

Kamehameha coach Doss Tannehill and Saint Louis coach Delbert Tengan each agreed that preparation didn't have to change much having just played each other. Except that Kamehameha has to figure a way to generate offense after being held to 89 yards on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Punahou, which drew the bye after the card draw, waits until Monday.

Tickets for tonight's and Monday's playoff games are $5 for adults and $3 for students. Those with ILH All-Sports Passes will be admitted free.

Kamehameha, Punahou and Saint Louis THROUGH THE YEARS

Reach Stacy Kaneshiro at skaneshiro@honoluluadvertiser.com.