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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Monday, December 18, 2006

Retailers await final shopping surge

By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO
Associated Press

NEW YORK — Get ready for the final showdown between the nation's retailers and consumers.

With Dec. 25 only a week away, many stores are finding themselves in the same position as in recent years, counting on those procrastinators to meet their sales goals even amid early reports of a strong shopping weekend.

With some exceptions, stores have generally stuck to planned discounts throughout the holiday season, not buckling to pressures from shoppers who are waiting for the best deals. That's good news for retailers' fourth-quarter profits.

But after pulling in better-than-expected crowds on Black Friday, the start of the holiday shopping season, shoppers have been returning to stores at a slower-than-expected pace after a post-Thanksgiving lull.

Shoppers did shop early for certain toys such as Fisher-Price's T.M.X. Elmo and Sony's PlayStation3, and popular consumer electronics like flat-panel TVs. Pricey fashions and jewelry as well as luxe handbags have been hot, too, but for most of the other merchandise, particularly apparel, consumers are dilly-dallying.

Kim Roffey, a strategist at Kurt Salmon Associates, noted that with Christmas falling on a Monday, shoppers know they have a full weekend before the holiday.

"The general consumer consensus is that they have time," she said. "That's great for consumers, but nerve-racking for retailers."

"I shop for all of my gifts on Christmas Eve," said Theresa Watson, of Detroit, who was at Eastland Mall near Detroit. "I get up real early knowing that's what I'll be doing all day and then I wrap gifts all night. That's my tradition."

She added, "There's all kinds of deals. Everyone's trying to get rid of everything."

Meanwhile, in cyberspace, retailers are making it easier for procrastinators by pushing back deadlines for standard shipping in time for Christmas deliveries as their operations become more sophisticated.

Jackie Vargas, from Trenton, said she was planning to finish her holiday shopping over this past weekend, after researching deals both online and offline.

"I did a lot of shopping online this year to avoid the crowds and see what online deals they had that department stores didn't have," she said.

Early reports of this past weekend were encouraging, but analysts say that the gap between the winners and losers is widening.

The toy industry has been helped by hot toys, giving analysts hopes that the industry will see a reversal in several years of sales declines. The well-heeled, benefiting from a stock market rebound and big bonuses on Wall Street, have splurged on diamond necklaces and luxury handbags.

For other apparel, shoppers are waiting for the best deals. Department stores such as Macy's are expected to have solid gains, benefiting from industry consolidation and better fashions. But the sales performance at mall-based apparel stores is mixed.

John Morris, managing director at Wachovia Securities, noted that discounting at the mall-based apparel stores he tracks has been "contained," though some, including struggling Gap Inc., are discounting heavily, while others, such as American Eagle Outfitters Inc., are not.