Imagine fighting a war and merely approximating where your targets are. That's how the state fights the war on HIV and AIDS.

Statistics are so unreliable in Hawai'i that it renders the effort against the virus and disease far less effective than it could be.

It also leaves those on the front lines playing a guessing game.

Getting a fix on the reality of the situation shouldn't be as hard as finding an AIDS cure, yet that's where state health officials find themselves.

More dangerous is how the stats are so prone to fudging that they threaten to lead the public into complacency.

For example, don't get excited that the the number of new AIDS cases remained stable the last six years.

Stable isn't nearly good enough. The numbers should have dropped, especially if treatment, community education and outreach have made any difference, according to Peter Whiticar, chief of the state's STD/AIDS Prevention Branch.

Whiticar said stability in numbers doesn't necessarily mean that current treatments are working. In fact, he said it actually could mean AIDS patients haven't gotten treatment, or have actually had treatment fail. Without good data, it's hard to say.

The state Health Department's recent numbers put the new AIDS cases at 109 in Hawai'i at the end of 2005,

The number seems low, but officials estimate the real number of existing HIV infections to be anywhere from 2,300 to 3,200.

That's not exactly having a handle on the problem.

The state is in the process of changing over to a more accurate reporting system based on names. Until then, the numbers game is subject to duplicative counts and false impressions, hardly helpful when fighting HIV and AIDS.

But Hawai'i needs a much speedier transition to make sure the state doesn't fall behind in the battle.

With the AIDS fight becoming more focused on the Third World, and with increased sexual activity, Hawai'i and the rest of the country could be prone to a new increase in cases.

That's why good data are necessary. We need to know exactly where we are in the fight against AIDS if we're to win the war against this deadly disease.