U.S. Rep. Ed Case is asking all voters who want change to pull a Democratic ballot in his September primary against U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka, a strategy political analysts consider a gamble because it suggests Case will attract independent and Republican voters to help contain Akaka's advantage among establishment and progressive Democrats who are more likely to vote.

Case said he is not specifically targeting independents or Republicans in his U.S. Senate campaign but says his message of change and the need for leadership transition appeals to mainstream Hawai'i.

"We certainly believe that our candidacy is universal," Case said. "It doesn't matter whether you are a Democrat or a Republican, some other party or independent, to understand the need for transition, to want change, to want better performance in the U.S. Senate.

"We are reaching out to all voters. We are not targeting any one group, whether it be party or otherwise."

Interviews with political analysts, activists, other political candidates and voters indicate that the Republican crossover vote in Democratic primaries likely has been overstated in the past, a leftover theory from days when Republicans were weaker and had problems finding strong candidates to compete against the dominant Democrats.

Even in open-primary states like Hawai'i — where voters are free to choose which party's ballot to take — primary voters tend to reflect a party's political and demographic base.

Activists and candidates who have been out campaigning have heard from Republican voters who plan to vote for Case in several pockets of the Islands, such as 'Ewa Beach, Kailua, Hawai'i Kai, Kihei and Kona. But political analysts and Akaka's advisers doubt the crossover vote will make a difference unless Case suddenly makes a sustained investment in Republican outreach.

"I think it has to do with party loyalty," said Neal Milner, a political science professor at the University of Hawai'i-Manoa. "I don't know how much better in the eyes of your basic stalwart Republican Ed Case looks, compared to Akaka.

"What do they have on their hands? They have someone who is maybe a little bit moderate who will be senator forever and ever."

FLUID INDEPENDENTS

The independent vote is much more fluid. The Advertiser's Hawai'i Poll found in June that 13 percent of voters interviewed said they did not know which ballot they would pull, and analysts say many were likely Case voters, which would narrow Akaka's advantage. Private polls generally have mirrored the Hawai'i Poll, with Akaka leading among likely Democratic primary voters but the race much closer among all voters.

Don Clegg, a political consultant, said Case's latest television advertisements may be ineffective because they focus on leadership transition without directly appealing to the moderate voters the congressman needs in the primary.

"I would think a good advertising agency, a good PR person, could craft a message that would get that across in a more refined manner," he said. "Appeal to the middle, but appeal to it in a way that says you've got to get in the Democratic primary."

Andy Winer, Akaka's campaign manager, discounts the potential for Republican crossover and also says many of the undecided voters in the Hawai'i Poll are ideologically inclined to vote for Akaka.

"It's our view, at this point, that it will have very little if any impact on the outcome of the Democratic primary," Winer said of crossover voting.

Akaka's campaign has done a voter-identification program that has apparently found, among other things, that many independent voters are most concerned about the war in Iraq. The campaign has been using Akaka's anti-war record in advertisements to fire up the party's liberal primary voters, but if the message also is motivating independents, it would be another edge for the senator.

U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Inouye, U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie, labor unions and much of the party's establishment have been with Akaka since Case announced his challenge in January, but progressives are becoming increasingly vocal. At a Progressive Democrats of Hawai'i event last week in Ho-nolulu for Democrats who want to replace Case in the 2nd Congressional District, organizers described the 2nd as "Patsy Mink's district" and told the audience to take home Akaka campaign signs. The Maui Democrats Web site tells activists where they can wave signs for Akaka.

KUCINICH RECRUITED

In August, Akaka's campaign expects U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich, an anti-war Democrat from Ohio, to campaign with the senator on Maui and the Big Island. Kucinich finished second to U.S. Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., in the Hawai'i presidential caucus in 2004 and is popular among Island progressives. Kerry has also endorsed Akaka.

Progressive bloggers — some local, some national — are urging friends to turn their money and attention to Hawai'i and are echoing many of Akaka's talking points on liberal Web sites.

"We're looking for Democrats who are willing to stand up to Bush," said Bart Dame, a tradesman and co-chairman of the Progressive Democrats of Hawai'i. "And Danny Akaka has been pretty good about that. Ed Case, on the other hand, almost raises to the level of a principle his ability to work with the Republicans.

"And we think this is a time when Bush is wrong and the Republican agenda on the national level is wrong on so many counts."

Case, who likely would have voted for the war had he been in Congress and who wants U.S. troops to stay until Iraq is more stable, has been eager from the start of the campaign to differentiate himself as a moderate to the liberal Akaka. But lately, he has been describing Akaka's views on the war and other issues as the fringe of the party and outside of Hawai'i's mainstream.

"There's no question that Sen. Akaka represents an extreme of the electorate. And he is targeting support from the distinct minority of the electorate that he represents," Case said. "I represent a mainstream approach, and I am certainly appealing to all voters and expecting that a mainstream constituency will be supportive of my candidacy."

THE CHANGE FACTOR

Case's campaign is built on his belief that voters, both inside the party and out, want to change the state's political culture. But he also believes he can compete with Akaka among Democrats without help from Republican crossover or independent voters.

Case ran for governor with a similar theme of change in 2002, barely losing to former Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono in a primary where he was dismissed by the party's establishment and labor unions. Case beat Hirono on O'ahu but lost on the Neighbor Islands, where establishment and progressive Democrats remain strong. A Hawai'i Poll taken after the primary found that nearly half — 49 percent — of Case voters planned to vote for Republican Linda Lingle over Hirono in the general election, a sign that many Case voters wanted change.

Case has represented suburban and rural O'ahu and the Neighbor Islands in the House for nearly four years and has seeded the 2nd District through informal "talk story" events with voters. His choice to join the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Democrats in the House and his desire to align himself with moderates if elected to the Senate is part of his crossover appeal.

Interviews with several voters show that the congressman is thought of as a candidate for a changing Hawai'i.

Martin Schiller, a marketing consultant and independent voter who lives near Makiki, said the issue for him is future leadership rather than age.

"I think it's time for leadership to move on to the next generation, but I'm not doing it in a sense of age. I'm doing it in the sense that it's time for people to move on and let someone else take the leadership position," he said. "And that's why I lean toward Ed Case."

Phyllisann Tam, a Nu'uanu retiree, usually votes Republican but is thinking about Case. "I'm kind of disenchanted with our country being at war. It seems like there are so many problems, and no one seems to be coming up with any good answers," she said. "I think he's a good man. I think he's smart."

Several Republican activists said they had heard little or no buzz for Case among Republican voters, who will have incentives beyond party loyalty to take a Republican ballot in the primary.

CROSSOVER DOUBTS

In the 2nd District, state Sen. Bob Hogue and former state Rep. Quentin Kawananakoa are in the Republican primary to replace Case, which could depress Republican crossover on Case's turf. There is some concern among Democrats that Kawananakoa — an heir to Hawaiian royalty — might pull Hawaiian voters away from Akaka. But other Hawaiian candidates on the Democratic ballot — state Sen. Clayton Hee and biotechnology worker Hanalei Aipoalani in the 2nd District primary, and William Aila Jr. in the Democratic primary for governor — could hold Hawaiians.

Statewide, Jerry Coffee, a former Vietnam prisoner of war and motivational speaker running in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, may hold conservatives and give some moderate Republicans and independents another reason to vote Republican.

Republicans also will want to give Lingle a solid endorsement in her primary and keep the party's base primed to help Republican state House and Senate candidates against Democrats in the general election in November. The governor, who is favored to win re-election, said she will personally ask Republicans to take a GOP ballot in the primary.

"I talk about all the work that's gone into having a strong two-party system, and with such an outstanding candidate as Jerry Coffee, it's important for us to respect his willingness to come forward like this by voting for him in the primary so that his vote total is significant," Lingle said.

Sam Aiona, the state's GOP chairman, thinks most Republicans will stay loyal.

"Our basic appeal is: If you're Republican, then vote Republican," he said.

Reach Derrick DePledge at ddepledge@honoluluadvertiser.com.