A rail transit system — at a cost of $3.6 billion to $4.6 billion — is the most expensive of the four mass transportation options Honolulu considered, but a year-long analysis concluded that it would best ease traffic congestion and is more energy efficient than the alternatives.

And though even the cheaper of the two proposed rail routes — from East Kapolei to Ala Moana Center — will cost more than the $3 billion Mayor Mufi Hannemann wanted to spend, he said he is confident that a planned increase in the general excise tax and anticipated federal aid will give the city the means to pay for it.

Hannemann yesterday unveiled the city's recommendation and the 124-page alternatives analysis at a news conference shortly after he had the report delivered to the nine members of the City Council.

The early announcement surprised council members — it wasn't expected until tomorrow — and several said they were shocked that cost estimates had risen.

"The cost seems to be going up and up and up," said Councilman Charles Djou, one of two members who voted against the tax increase to fund the project.

"I'm very nervous, because I think we've heard the first shot about whether or not that half-percent tax increase is going to be enough, and there's going to have to be yet another tax increase to fully fund the system."

Hannemann said the city expects to receive $700 million to $1 billion in federal money in combination with the estimated $150 million a year that a half-percent add-on to the general excise tax will bring starting Jan. 1.

He said he wouldn't be opposed to the council going for the longer route, or "the whole manapua," but "we're going to need help" to pay for the more ambitious project, he said.

The selection of rail as the recommended alternative was widely anticipated, and it marked the start of the next phase of decision-making on the project: City Council consideration.

Transportation planners will give a detailed report to the City Council tomorrow. The mayor and council members believe that decisions on the route and type of transit can be completed by year's end.

Hannemann said the analysis was a complete and fair assessment, but acknowledged his long-time support for rail transit.

"The recommendation is something that I've always contended and believed, that the fixed guideway is the best solution that the City and County of Honolulu needs to ensure a better quality of life," he said.

He said he wants to work with the council to make a decision because growing gridlock is eroding the quality of life for commuters on O'ahu.

He added, "14 years from now, I want people to say we had the courage and the will in 2006 to do the right thing for our families and future generations."

Hannemann said a fixed guideway can be the best for slowing the growth of congestion because it actually removes vehicles from the roads, builds transit ridership fastest, and some of the technologies under consideration can run on alternative fuel sources such as electricity.

TWO OPTIONS FOR RAIL

The recommendation offers two possible rail transit projects: the 28-mile option that covers the original route from Kapolei to the University of Hawai'i-Manoa at a cost of $4.6 billion; and a shorter, 20-mile option that goes from East Kapolei (near the planned site of the new UH-West O'ahu campus and the Department of Hawaiian Home Lands new housing development) to Ala Moana Center.

City chief transportation engineer Toru Hamayasu estimated the average ridership by the year 2030 on rail would range from 90,000 for the shorter route to 120,000 for the longer one.

The rail recommendation generated mixed reaction from residents.

Dale Burke, a Mililani resident, said he would prefer the rail line extend out toward Central O'ahu. "If it could get me close to downtown, I'd ride it," said the Hawai'i Pacific University communications instructor.

Burke, 60, said he supports the project nonetheless.

"I think anything would be a good thing," he said. "It would get Kapolei folks off the road and make it easier for the traffic coming from Mililani," he said. "It would be a plus for everybody on the island."

Randy Elsen, a Makakilo resident, said he supports mass transit and would ride it to get to his job at Fort Shafter.

Elsen, 42, said he doesn't mind paying an extra surcharge on the excise tax for a rail line.

"We have more cars on the road than necessary and if we can find a way to 'mass transit' people to their destinations, I think that's the answer," he said.

Elsen said he thinks it's important that people in the state become more conscious of the environment as development and population increase.

"If we're going to have more people coming to Hawai'i to live and stay, we have to think of ways to lower our consumption of fuel and think of ways of keeping Hawai'i Hawai'i," he said.

But Rylan Kwock, 18, said he doesn't see the value in a mass transit system. A Mililani resident who attends UH-Manoa and lives on campus, Kwock rides TheBus and believes politicians should put more money into improving the roadways and existing bus system, as well as better managing existing freeway on-ramps and off-ramps.

Kwock said O'ahu residents shouldn't be forced to wait years before improvements come to fruition as may be needed with a rail system.

"I don't like the idea of having to wait, like, 12 years for it," he said. "If they were able to just use that money to improve what we have now, I'm sure it wouldn't be too far off from what they want to do (with a rail line)."

OBJECTIONS TO COST

Djou said he supports the idea of a rail system — but objects to its cost.

"If money grew on trees, I think this rail system would be fantastic," he said.

He called for more public input.

"This is the largest public works project in the history of the state of Hawai'i," he said. "We should go out to the public and have multiple public hearings so the public does truly grasp and understand the magnitude of this decision.

"This is not like building another highway on-ramp or a water pump station. This is a really huge project that is going to transform the landscape of the city and county of Honolulu. You can't have too many public hearings."

Djou said he continues to prefer the construction of an elevated toll lane for vehicles, rather than a rail system.

Council chairman Donovan Dela Cruz also said he was concerned about the rise in projected costs.

"That just shows that they don't have a handle on the numbers," he said.

He said council members would have many questions about the project before voting on it, but that he hoped for a decision on the main points — such as the transit mode and the route's beginning and ending points — by the end of the year.

"I think the council's going to try its best, but the council has an obligation to make the best decision with the information we have," he said. "You can't rush a multibillion-dollar project."

He said he did not believe it was necessary to decide on the system's specific route — besides beginning and ending point — or the locations of individual transit stations by the end of the year.

Council budget chairwoman Ann Kobayashi said that shortening the route to save money could decrease ridership and undermine the project's intent, as happened in some other cities.

"It's no use putting it where people aren't going to use it," she said.

Kobayashi said she was confident the council would decide on the transit mode and route by the end of this year.

"We want to do that before we start collecting any tax," she said.

She agreed that the locations of transit stations could be decided later. And if the route stretches to Manoa, it should not include a segment that crosses over the H-1 Freeway, as preliminary designs have suggested.

It may be prudent to find a company to design, build and operate the system in exchange for helping to finance it, Kobayashi said.

"We'll have to become a little more creative if we don't have enough money," she said. "We're going to have to see what's out there. If we're going to build something, we want to do it right and make sure that we're getting the best use out of it. And we have to look at 20 or 30 years from now, what are we going to need? That's why this is such a major decision."

AN 'ELUSIVE DREAM'

This effort marks the fourth time in the past 25 years that the city has tried to develop a new mass-transit system for O'ahu. The previous efforts floundered and ultimately failed because of cost concerns or changes in local political administrations.

"It's no secret that for many, many years we've been chasing this elusive dream," Hannemann said.

He emphasized some of the past failures to jump on a transit train plan and compared those proposed costs to today's. In 1972, he said, a 22-mile rail project for Honolulu would have cost $550 million.

And 14 years ago, there was $618 million in federal funding available to the city to build rail transit, but the City Council rejected that plan on a 5-4 vote.

Though the cost has grown, Hannemann said he believes rail will pick up support as it is built and the projects will attract private developers ready to shoulder some of the cost in partnership with government.

Reach Robbie Dingeman at rdingeman@honoluluadvertiser.com and Johnny Brannon at jbrannon@honoluluadvertiser.com.