U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka's victory Saturday was built on his popularity across the Islands, with U.S. Rep. Ed Case only taking pockets of the state that mostly trend toward independents and Republicans.

An Advertiser analysis of the primary election vote in the 51 state House districts found wide geographic support for Akaka, who won a majority in all four counties. Although the vote was closer in urban Honolulu and in some of the fast-growing neighborhoods in Central and Leeward O'ahu, South Maui and the southeast corner of the Big Island, Case won outright in only 10 House districts.

Case took Kailua and North Kona on the Big Island, the only two districts he won on the Neighbor Islands. On O'ahu, Case won in Hawai'i Kai, Kahala, Kaimuki, Waikiki, Manoa, Makiki, Maunawili and Kailua. The rest of the state stayed with Akaka.

Case was able to get independents and Republicans to vote in the Democratic primary — only 12 percent of voters pulled Republican ballots on Saturday — but they were not enough to offset Akaka's stronger support among traditional and progressive Democrats.

FAR FROM A BLOWOUT

Voter turnout of 42 percent was marginally higher than the past two primaries but low given the intensity and media coverage of the campaign. Neal Milner, an ombudsman and political analyst at the University of Hawai'i-Manoa, said Case needed higher voter turnout and more independent and Republican votes.

"I think the things Case needed to pull this out just weren't there," Milner said.

Akaka's 54 percent to 45 percent victory statewide was not crushing for an incumbent and was the senator's toughest campaign since he beat Republican congresswoman Pat Saiki in a special election for Senate in 1990.

But Akaka's campaign strategy appears to have been effective. The campaign targeted traditional Democrats, union families and Hawaiians overall and then used extensive outreach to pinpoint 55,000 infrequent voters who would likely vote for Akaka. The idea was to get as many of the infrequent voters as possible to vote by absentee ballot, but the campaign also used telephone calls and door-to-door canvassing in the final days to bring these voters to the polls.

ABSENTEE BOOST

Andy Winer, Akaka's campaign manager, estimates that 15,000 to 20,000 of these infrequent voters came through for the senator. Akaka had a substantial edge over Case among the record number of absentee voters and won the primary by about 22,000 votes.

"Our absentee program drove the numbers," Winer said.

The Akaka campaign also went after independents and other likely Case voters by using Akaka's opposition to the war in Iraq as a dominant campaign theme. The war was an early message in Akaka's advertising, and the campaign brought anti-war U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, to help Akaka with progressives and independents on Maui and the Big Island.

Winer said the hope was to reduce Case's vote totals in neighborhoods where he might be strong. The campaign also wanted independent voters who might favor Case on environmental issues to have to balance that with Iraq. "They were weighing the environment and the war, and the war won," he said.

The Case campaign also aimed at absentee voters but not with the same precision as Akaka. The campaign gave a lot of its focus to urban Honolulu, where the congressman did well in the Democratic primary for governor in 2002. Akaka beat Case 53 percent to 47 percent on O'ahu.

FUTURE CAMPAIGNS

The district-by-district analysis of the primary gives both political parties a map of potential battlegrounds in future elections. Growing neighborhoods in Puna on the Big Island, Kihei on Maui, and Waikele, 'Ewa and Makakilo on O'ahu were divided in the primary. Neighborhoods in Salt Lake, 'Aiea and Mililani, which have favored Democrats in the past, were also close and may be swing districts.

State House Vice Speaker K. Mark Takai, D-34th (Pearl City, Newtown, Royal Summit), said Case likely won over many young middle-class families that Democrats want to keep.

"Ed is a Democrat and I think he appeals to that demographic," he said.

Gov. Linda Lingle, speaking on Monday after the Republican Party picked moderate Windward state Rep. Cynthia Thielen, R-50th (Kailua, Mokapu), to face Akaka in November, believes party identification has become less important to voters.

"The fact is the majority of people in our state don't belong to either political party," Lingle said. "They're independents."

Reach Derrick DePledge at ddepledge@honoluluadvertiser.com.