A U.S. troop drawdown in Iraq could start next month with the release of a much-anticipated progress report, said a former two-star general in charge of the 25th Infantry Division in Hawai'i who just spent a year in a high-profile role working on reconstruction in the war-torn country.

Retired Maj. Gen. Eric Olson said, "I think now what we need to do is kind of come to terms with the fact that come September, we're not going to have sufficient progress to show against the benchmarks that have been established to warrant continuing the surge through the end of '07."

Olson, who lives in Hawai'i Kai, said he is "pretty confident" that the upcoming report by Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, will lead to a set of decisions that's going to begin the drawdown of the 30,000-troop "surge" next month and bring the now-162,000 total down significantly so that by the end of 2008, a "steady state" force will be in place for possibly years to come.

"The next thing is we want to figure out, how, with a reduced force — and I don't know what that is, I don't know if it's 100,000, I don't know if it's 80,000, I don't know if it's 50,000 — but with a reduced force, we have to figure out what the military footprint looks like so that we can provide to the Iraqi army and the Iraqi government what they need."

Those needs will include quick reaction forces, continued training, logistics and air support.

"I think post-September is when we've got to start putting some of this on the ground," he said, citing pressure for changes by Democrats and an increasing number of Republicans.

NEW DEPLOYMENTS

Schofield Barracks' Stryker brigade, with 4,000 soldiers and more than 300 eight-wheeled armored vehicles, prepares to deploy to Iraq in November.

A new batch of 1,000 Hawai'i Marines, meanwhile, is about to relieve a sister unit on a seven-month tour in western Iraq.

Another 7,000 Schofield soldiers next month will begin rotating out of Iraq after 15 months.

Although the 25th Infantry Division has not revealed where the Stryker brigade will operate, similar units recently have been used in Baghdad and volatile Diyala province to the northeast.

Olson, who commanded the 25th from 2002 to 2005, spent the past year in Iraq and was in charge of Provincial Reconstruction Teams across the country.

He has taken a new job as chief of staff for the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, a taxpayer-funded watchdog group, and soon will be splitting his time between Washington, D.C., and Iraq. The group at times has been highly critical of the reconstruction effort.

Olson led Hawai'i soldiers during simultaneous deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan in 2004 and 2005 and spent a year in Afghanistan.

Olson's predictions go against the grain of projections by other officials, including Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, the No. 2 U.S. commander in Iraq.

Petraeus has said this year's surge eventually would end.

"There's no question about that," Petraeus said. "I think everyone understands that by about a year or so from now, we've got to be a good bit smaller than we are right now."

But some experts believe that Petraeus wants to keep the surge going well into next year, and possibly beyond.

"My gut is telling me that they are going to say, 'The surge is working, it needs more time, and we're going to stay at 160,000 (troops) for another six months,' " said John Pike, director of Virginia-based think tank www.GlobalSecurity.org.

Olson said the Bush administration is playing its cards close to the vest. "I think their decision comes in September, and I might be wrong, but in my opinion, I think (a drawdown starting next month) is where we're going to head."

Olson counts Odierno as a friend and met with Petraeus about once a month in Baghdad to discuss reconstruction issues.

'SUSTAINABLE FOOTING'

A progress report mandated by Congress found "satisfactory" results by the Baghdad government in only eight of 18 benchmarks. Iraq failed to pass an oil wealth distribution law, which was a crucial benchmark.

The New York Times yesterday said the Bush administration will use next month's report to argue that the surge has provided more security, with fewer sectarian killings, and had established the conditions for a new approach that would begin troop cuts in the first half of next year.

The Times said the gradual reduction plan is intended to counter public pressure for a more rapid reduction and keep American involvement on a "sustainable footing" through the end of the Bush presidency.

Maj. Gen. Benjamin "Randy" Mixon, the Hawai'i-based commander of the 25th Infantry Division and current commander of U.S. forces in northern Iraq, has said the five to six brigades operating in the north could be halved beginning in January and taking place over 18 months.

But forces taken out of the north could be moved elsewhere.

Troop reductions likely would come with less direct combat, a more defensive posture and fewer bases, a change that some have said would leave U.S. troops more vulnerable to attack, including rockets and mortars being fired at bases.

But Olson said if "we're focused on a slightly different mission set that's a little less aggressive and a little less expansive than we've got now, we can focus a lot more on going out and finding those mortar teams and rocket teams."

Further, Olson said, "a fairly good part" of those attacks are coming from Shiites.

"Their basic purpose is to get us out of (the country) in the numbers we're in there now," Olson said, "and I think we're much less intrusive in the eyes of the Shiites if we go down to a lower profile. It may be something that they are willing to accept, especially if it looks like it's going to help the Maliki government stay in power."

Reach William Cole at wcole@honoluluadvertiser.com.