Visitor arrival and spending numbers for January provided more evidence that Hawai'i's tourism industry is continuing to cool after several years of record growth.

Visitor arrivals fell 5.7 percent to 561,691 visitors in January compared with the same month a year earlier, led by a 12.3 percent drop in visitors from Japan, according to data released yesterday by the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism. Overall visitor spending fell to $1 billion in January, a 1.4 percent decline from January 2006.

Still, the state is forecasting modest growth in the tourism industry this year.

"We anticipate continued growth in the visitor industry this year, albeit at a more moderate pace when compared to the phenomenal performance of previous years," said state tourism liaison Marsha Wienert.

"Although results for January 2007 were mixed, we must remember that we have seen exceptional growth the past couple of years as well as very mild weather in the U.S. East last month, which likely impacted the normally high winter travel to the Islands."

Wienert saw some good news arriving by sea, noting "Hawai'i's cruise industry continues to perform well, and the strength of Hawai'i's brand as a preferred vacation destination remains strong."

David Carey serves as president and chief executive officer of Outrigger Enterprises group, which includes the Outrigger Hotels & Resorts. He said the decreased number of visitor arrivals is cause for concern.

"There's no question that there's been a softening in the numbers," Carey said. And he's most worried about that continuing decline in visitors from Asia. "I'm really troubled by the Japan statistics," he said.

He said there appears to be no obvious reason for the dip.

"I think we're going to have to roll up our sleeves and work on that," Carey said. "It's going to take a strategy shift."

He said part of the overall decline may come from increased competition from other visitor destinations. Until recently, Carey said, the reputation of Florida and the Caribbean suffered because of hurricane damage or perceived damage from the storms.

And he said the strong market in visitors from the eastern United States probably suffered because of some atypical weather there. "It was 70 degrees in Manhattan," Carey said.

Daniel Naho'opi'i, chief of tourism research for DBEDT, said the figures were similar to the ups and downs of last year's statistics.

Prior to last month, the visitor arrivals were last down in October, when they declined 4.2 percent; and they had dropped a similar percentage in March, when they were down 5.6 percent, he said.

Naho'opi'i said the state is still feeling the continued slowdown of Japanese visitors. And even modest arrival numbers pale in comparison to some of the large increases seen over the past two years, he said.

For example, January of last year saw an increase. "One year ago, we were actually up 3.4 percent," he said.

But the sharp decline in weather conditions for many parts of the Mainland may give rise to sunnier predictions for Hawai'i visitor numbers.

Naho'opi'i is cautiously optimistic: "I still think we will have some slight growth but remain at this level."

He points to the state agency's recent economic forecast, which estimates a 1.4 percent growth in visitor arrivals for 2007. "It's kind of a constant slight growth in visitors, with visitor expenditures being a little bit stronger, about 4.8 percent."

The latest figures showed an increase in average daily spending, which rose from $169 a day a year ago to $177 per person per day last month. That's an increase of 4.8 percent, and spending per person per trip rose 4.6 percent.

Reach Robbie Dingeman at rdingeman@honoluluadvertiser.com.