STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
Bush beleaguered but unbowed
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| • | Been there: Hawai'i delegation blasts Bush's war, tax plans |
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| • | Plan aims to cut oil use, boost alternatives |
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By Dan Balz
Washington Post
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WASHINGTON — George Bush used his State of the Union address last night to try to revive his presidency against what may be the greatest odds any president has faced in a generation.
Bush is at his lowest point in public-opinion polls, confronted by new Democratic majorities in the House and Senate and facing lame-duck status as attention turns toward a 2008 campaign to choose his successor.
His problems all stem from one reality: The public has lost confidence in his Iraq policy, and instead of changing course, he has chosen to deploy more troops — a direction the public overwhelmingly opposes.
But his speech was vintage Bush. If humbler in tone and rhetorically generous to Democrats in calling for cooperation, he was anything but defensive.
There were three underlying messages in the speech. The first was a plea for patience on Iraq, a chord struck earlier in the day by Lt. Gen. David H. Petraeus, the new commander of U.S. forces there. Although roughly two in three Americans disagree with the decision to send more troops there and members of Congress are preparing nonbinding resolutions declaring their opposition, Bush asked for time to show that the strategy can succeed.
He recalled that the country was largely united at the time of the invasion in 2003 and acknowledged the divisions that have emerged since. But he argued that whatever motivated members of Congress at the time of the invasion, there was a consensus that the United States must win the war.
"This is not the fight we entered in Iraq, but it is the fight we are in," he said. "Every one of us wishes that this war were over and won. Yet it would not be like us to leave our promises unkept, our friends abandoned and our own security at risk. Ladies and gentlemen: On this day, at this hour, it is still within our power to shape the outcome of this battle. So let us find our resolve and turn events toward victory."
But Bush may have been speaking into the void. Over the past six months, there has been a critical turn in public opinion. Long ago, a majority of Americans concluded that the president's decision to go to war was a mistake. The administration tried to shrug off those findings by focusing attention on the consequences of failure, believing that as long as Americans saw some chance for success, they would continue to support the mission.
Today Bush has lost that battle for public opinion as well. NBC News-Wall Street Journal polls have tracked public confidence on the question of whether there will be a successful conclusion in Iraq. A year ago, the public was mildly pessimistic, with 41 percent saying they had confidence in a successful outcome and 49 percent saying they did not.
HOPE FADES
Attitudes remained generally in that range throughout the summer, but last fall they took a sharp negative turn. By October, just 27 percent saw hope for a successful conclusion, and 61 percent did not. In December, attitudes turned even more sour, with a 50-point gap between those who believe the United States can succeed and those who doubt there can be any successful conclusion.
"The American public thinks it's time to start wrapping up," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who jointly conducts the poll with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart. "The president's doing something that is very difficult. It's the core of presidential leadership, and that is to stick to what he believes is the right policy in the face of an American public that has decided they disagree with him. ... The president has very little capacity to change their mind."
The second message from the president was a call for bipartisan cooperation, particularly on domestic issues such as budget deficits, earmarks, immigration, energy, healthcare and education.
"We are not the first to come here with government divided and uncertainty in the air," Bush said. "Like many before us, we can work through our differences and achieve big things for the American people. Our citizens don't much care which side of the aisle we sit on — as long as we are willing to cross that aisle when there is work to be done."
Administration officials expressed optimism that they can reach agreement with the Democrats in Congress on the path to a balanced budget, on the reauthorization of the No Child Left Behind education law and on some elements of a strategy to wean the nation off imported oil.
But even as Bush was calling for bipartisan cooperation, Democrats were seeking coalitions with Republicans to advance their own agenda. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will begin working this morning on a resolution opposing Bush's Iraq plan, a measure that enjoys the support of a growing number of Republican senators. In the House, Democrats completed work on the first six items of their agenda last week, attracting a substantial number of Republicans to several of the measures.
Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., the third-ranking Democrat in the Senate, said yesterday that Bush so far has shown no evidence of wanting real compromise with Democrats on issues such as Iraq and healthcare.
"This year, I don't think the change is the president, who is staying in his ideological tower, but Republicans in the Senate, who have said we just can't keep following this president," he said. "That's where you will see the bipartisanship."
NO GENEROUS MOOD
A Republican strategist, who asked not to be identified in order to speak freely about the administration's problems, said Democrats are not in any mood to be generous toward Bush. Referring to the president's approval rating, he said, "When you're sitting at 35 and you're telling them what to do after they won an election, they've got to chuckle."
Bush's third message was perhaps the most robust domestic agenda of his presidency, a way of saying to those who are ready to write him off that he still has the power of the bully pulpit to inject ideas into the national debate and force others to react to them. It was a message that said he should not be regarded as a lame duck.
"Either we're going to see progress on that agenda, or it will be a banner to which our allies on the Hill, Republican or Democrat, can repair," a senior White House official said.
Even Republicans outside the White House questioned that optimism. "My view is that Bush's speech tonight, especially the domestic policy side, is an attempt to set the agenda for the 2008 Republican primaries, not for the 2007 Congress," said Daniel Casse, a Republican strategist and writer. "I think their motivation is to make sure candidates in '08 are running on ideas established by George Bush, not running away from them."
Bush is by nature a competitor, and the State of the Union address reminded the country that he will continue to push his ideas even in the face of enormous public skepticism. Given the political balance in Congress, the chances of him getting his way domestically are slender. Prospects in Iraq appear even more difficult.
That is why, though he certainly didn't intend to steal a page from Democratic Sen. Barack Obama's best-selling book, his speech last night might be remembered as "the audacity of hope."
| KEY ISSUES OF PRESIDENT'S ADDRESS AND WHAT THEY MEAN
BALANCED BUDGET What President Bush said: "In the coming weeks, I will submit a budget that eliminates the federal deficit within the next five years. I ask you to make the same commitment. Together, we can restrain the spending appetite of the federal government and balance the federal budget." Context: Bush inherited a $128 billion budget surplus. Within three years, a recession and the war on terrorism turned it into a $412 billion deficit. Rising tax receipts fueled by record corporate profits have since driven the deficit down to $248 billion. Getting back to balance won't be easy if the president is realistic about the future costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the impact of extending his tax cuts, which he vows to do. Bush will be long gone before any balanced budget is enacted. Even if balance is achieved, the long-term growth of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security threaten much larger deficits in the future. ECONOMY What Bush said: "A future of hope and opportunity begins with a growing economy — and that is what we have. Unemployment is low, inflation is low and wages are rising." Context: The economy, while slowing, continues to be a bright spot for the president. Americans' earnings are keeping ahead of inflation, interest rates have stabilized, the jobless rate remains low at 4.5 percent, and more jobs have been created for 40 consecutive months. Gasoline prices are down from their summer peak; healthcare inflation, while high, is the lowest since 1999. Tax collections are running 8.2 percent higher than a year ago. Whether this is tied to Bush's tax cuts in 2001 and 2003 remains in dispute. Bush says he can balance the budget by 2012 while making all his tax cuts permanent. Democrats are focused on the uneven nature of the recovery, which has left lower-income families behind. They want to redirect spending on tax cuts and the Iraq war to their priorities, such as healthcare, education and alternative energy. Expect a major clash of priorities over the 2008 budget, which Bush will unveil Feb. 5. EDUCATION What Bush said: "Five years ago we rose above partisan differences to pass the No Child Left Behind Act. ... And because we acted, students are performing better." Bush wants the act reauthorized. Context: No Child Left Behind, Bush's ambitious 2002 education overhaul law, remains one of his few bipartisan successes. It expires this year, and Congress must reauthorize it. That effort could meet stiff resistance as lawmakers try to hold it off until after the 2008 election. Members on both sides of the aisle have good reasons to wait: Many Democrats don't like the law's annual tests and punishments for failing schools. They don't want to give Bush a victory on education, traditionally a Democratic issue. Republican lawmakers in states such as Utah and Virginia have criticized the law for allowing too much government intervention. ETHICS What Bush said: "Let us work together to reform the budget process ... expose every earmark to the light of day and to a vote in Congress ... and cut the number and cost of earmarks at least in half by the end of this session." Context: Congress has required more public disclosure of earmarks, as the special projects that lawmakers quietly insert in spending bills are known. Lawmakers have not called for reductions; many defend the practice because they know best what their states and districts need. Bush wants to go further; he even wants line-item veto power to eliminate earmarks, an idea Democratic leaders reject. The use of earmarks has mushroomed in recent years — with $67 billion in taxpayer money going to these special projects in fiscal year 2006 alone, according to the Congressional Research Service. GLOBAL DISEASE What Bush said: "We hear the call to take on the challenges of hunger, poverty and disease — and that is precisely what America is doing." Context: In 2003, Bush announced a five-year, $15 billion initiative to combat AIDS, the largest international health campaign to target a single disease. The program targets 15 countries that are home to about half the world's 39 million people who are HIV-positive. Bush has also called for Congress to reauthorize the $2.1 billion Ryan White Care Act, the largest federal program for people with HIV/AIDS. The White House says that before the program, 50,000 people were receiving drug treatment for AIDS, while today, more than 800,000 people are receiving medications. Democrats have acknowledged the treatment success of the 2003 Bush initiative but have complained that it focuses too much on promoting abstinence in trying to prevent HIV infections. Bush announced a $1.2 billion, five-year plan in 2005 to control malaria in Africa. The goal of the initiative is to reduce malaria deaths by half in 15 target countries. HOMELAND SECURITY What Bush said: "For all the people in this room, there is no higher responsibility than to protect the people of this country from danger." Context: Immigration reform and border security will continue to be hot political issues in 2007 and beyond. House Democrats have said they will reconsider legislation passed last year to build 700 miles of fence along the Mexican border. Government auditors have said the project could cost $30 billion. The Homeland Security Department, meanwhile, plans a new "virtual fence" that would help Border Patrol agents with cameras, sensors and other high-tech equipment. Beyond the border, House Democrats this month passed a sweeping bill that would require inspections of all cargo on passenger airplanes and screening of cargo containers before they're loaded on ships headed to U.S. ports. The White House and some senators in both parties have questioned how the government will pay for the inspections. IMMIGRATION What Bush said: "Extending hope and opportunity in our country requires an immigration system worthy of America, with laws that are fair and borders that are secure. ... Let us have a serious, civil and conclusive debate — so that you can pass, and I can sign, comprehensive immigration reform into law. Context: Immigration is one issue where Democrats and Bush are likely to reach a deal. Bush has been pressing since taking office for a major overhaul of immigration laws that would include giving legal status to an estimated 12 million people now living in the country illegally. Last year, the Senate approved a bipartisan bill that met the president's requirements, but House Republicans blocked it. Now Democrats are in charge and are making it a priority. Bipartisan negotiations already are under way to begin writing a bill that would beef up border security, create a secure ID system to help employers determine who can legally work for them and strengthen penalties on those who hire illegal employees. Still to be determined: how many of those now here illegally will be given a chance at citizenship, and how many conditions they will have to meet. IRAN What Bush said: "The United Nations has imposed sanctions on Iran and made it clear that the world will not allow ... Tehran to acquire nuclear weapons." Context: The Bush administration has intensified pressure on Iran to stop trying to make nuclear fuel and to stop backing Iraqis who target U.S. troops. European nations, such as France and Germany, urged the United States to talk to Iran; in May, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the United States would take part in multinational talks if Iran suspended uranium enrichment. Iran continued the program. The United Nations Security Council passed a resolution in December forbidding trade that could help Iran's nuclear or missile programs. The Bush administration rejected the Iraq Study Group's call for U.S.-Iranian talks. Instead, the administration increased pressure to ban foreign investment in Iran's oil industry and to stop Iranian banks from using U.S. dollars. Bush also sent a second aircraft carrier group to the Persian Gulf. — USA Today |
