Developers are prospecting to build a half-dozen major shopping complexes on Maui in the next few years as part of the retail boom building up in Hawai'i.

The Maui projects include some of the most ambitious retail development plans in the state, and potentially would provide many retailers from big-box chains to supermarkets to specialty stores with their first location on the Valley Isle.

Among the retail centers proposed is one that is bigger than Maui's largest existing shopping mall, Queen Ka'ahumanu Center, and envisioned with tenants including Target, Whole Foods and Lowe's.

In all, the six large development projects would add 1.6 million square feet of retail on Maui, a nearly 60 percent increase to the market's existing inventory, according to a recent report by Honolulu-based commercial real estate firm Colliers Monroe Friedlander.

Industry observers say some of the projects likely won't pan out because of competitive or community issues.

But there's considerable demand from consumers for more retail options — and interest from many retailers to expand — on an island that's seen plenty of residential and resort growth in the last few years.

"It's probably one of the tightest markets I've seen in the last 20 years in the business on Maui," said Grant Howe, principal broker and partner at Commercial Properties of Maui. "There's obviously going to be room for more retail on the island."

A similarly swelling pipeline of planned retail projects exists on O'ahu, where about 3 million square feet of new retail is planned by 2009, representing a potential 25 percent addition to the market.

3 SLATED FOR 2009

On Maui, three of the six projects are slated for completion in 2009. One is under construction and expected to open in November. Two of the more tentative projects don't have known development timetables, Colliers reported.

Most of Maui's planned shopping complex sites are in Central Maui, with one site in West Maui and one in South Maui.

The largest project is envisioned for Kihei in South Maui by local development firm The MacNaughton Group.

Dubbed Kihei Commons, the MacNaughton plan is in a preliminary feasibility stage and faces significant challenges including permitting, tenanting and competing retail developments that could derail or alter the project.

A MacNaughton representative said the company is studying the site and holding discussions with the landowner and prospective retail tenants.

According to a conceptual Kihei Commons site plan circulated in the real-estate community, the center would be 574,670 square feet, slightly more than Maui's biggest mall, Ka'ahumanu Center, which has 572,896 square feet of retail space anchored by Macy's and Sears.

Prospective tenants listed on the Kihei Commons site plan are Target, Whole Foods, Lowe's, Cost Plus, Circuit City, Borders Books & Music and P.F. Chang's China Bistro. About a dozen other spaces from 3,000 to 21,000 square feet also are designated on the plan.

RETAILERS TENTATIVE

Sketching retailer names on a site plan doesn't mean retailers have committed to the project. In fact, financially struggling Cost Plus recently shelved previously announced plans for opening stores in Hawai'i.

Roger Lyons, a local broker with CB Richard Ellis representing Target in Hawai'i, said the nation's No. 2 discount retailer is interested in expanding to Maui, though it's prema-ture to say where or when that could happen.

"Target's excited at the possibility of coming to Maui; however, it's too early to speculate on which property they eventually might locate."

The Kihei site is part of an 88-acre parcel proposed more than a decade ago as an industrial subdivision called Kaonoulu Industrial Park.

Major Maui landowner Kaonoulu Ranch in 1995 received approval from the state Land Use Commission to allow for industrial use of the agricultural-zoned property then used for cattle grazing.

At the time, Kaonoulu Ranch indicated that it intended to sell the site to a developer, or develop the property alone or with a partner.

In 2005, a company affiliated with California-based Wood-ridge Capital LLC bought the site for $21 million.

The property has been considered a prime development site along Pi'ilani Highway. But several other major retail plans (projects with more than 100,000 square feet) could affect whether Kihei Commons moves forward as envisioned.

The next largest proposed project is Maui Lani Town Center planned by local developer Bill Mills as part of a master-planned residential community in Central Maui. According to Colliers, Maui Lani Town Center is slated for 414,480 square feet of retail and is targeted to open in mid-2009.

Stacey Takaba, a partner in the project, said the project's size and timetable are uncertain. "We're in the preliminary design phase," she said.

A separate neighborhood shopping center at Maui Lani anchored by Safeway would be 131,148 square feet, though that project's timetable is yet to be determined, Colliers reported.

NEEDED RETAIL SPACE

The other three projects are a planned redevelopment and expansion of Kahului Shopping Center with 144,000 square feet of retail slated for completion in mid-2009, the 207,000-square-foot Kehalani Village neighborhood center slated for a late-2009 opening, and Lahaina Gateway, a 137,229-square-foot project under construction and slated to open later this year with Barnes & Noble Booksellers, Office Max and upscale grocer Ohana Farms.

Maui's dominant mall, Ka'ahumanu Center, opened in 1972. The enclosed mall with about 100 tenants would still be the largest retail complex by store count even if Kihei Commons is built as planned.

While it's questionable whether all or most of the planned retail development will come to fruition in the short-term, completion of some projects will help alleviate a relative shortage of available retail space.

Colliers said Maui's retail vacancy rate at mid-year had sunk to a recent historical low of 4.6 percent, down from 4.9 percent at the end of last year. In 2001, it was a little over 8 percent.

The tight supply has prompted landlords to ask $3.64 a square foot for rent on average, up nearly 10 percent from last year, Colliers said.

Maui's retail market comprises 2.79 million square feet, of which 127,900 square feet is vacant, according to Colliers, which projects the vacancy rate will remain between 4 percent and 6 percent over the next year.

Reach Andrew Gomes at agomes@honoluluadvertiser.com.