Proposals to curb real estate speculation, force an environmental impact statement for the Hawaii Superferry and establish ethical standards for politicians are likely to draw the most heat at the state Legislature this week as lawmakers decide which bills to jettison and which to keep alive.

Those three are on the bubble and could be dead by Thursday. That's the deadline for moving legislation from one chamber to another, the halfway point in the session. Any bill that doesn't cross over is likely to die.

One of the more contentious measures would impose a higher capital gains tax on anyone who buys and sells a home within two years.

Under the measure, House Bill 1002, the tax would be 60 percent for selling a home within six months, 30 percent for sales between six and 12 months, and 15 percent for sales between 12 and 24 months. The extra tax proceeds would go to the state's rental housing trust fund.

Rep. Maile Shimabukuro, D-45th (Wai'anae, Makaha, Makua), chairwoman of the House Human Services and Housing Committee, says the bill is needed because real estate speculation by Mainland and local residents has driven up property taxes and housing costs.

Republicans question whether the higher tax would do anything to increase the number of affordable housing units — a priority for both parties.

House Minority Leader Lynn Finnegan, R-32nd (Lower Pearlridge, 'Aiea, Halawa), said increased costs may just get passed along to the buyer. "We have to be careful because some of the things we see as solutions could just make the problem worse," she said. "You're going to see Republicans have challenges on the anti-speculation bills."

CHANGES TO ETHICS BILL

While both majority and minority leaders seem happy with a stripped down ethics bill that would create a bipartisan ethics committee to address issues that come up in the Legislature, critics may take issue with several changes made to the original bill. Gone for the moment are proposals that would have prohibited gifts from lobbyists and would have prevented lobbyists and paid-professionals from working as "interns."

Finnegan said Republicans support the ethics bill, although "it's not in a shape where we would like it to move forward."

The Senate Democrats say they expect passage of a bill requiring an environmental impact statement for the Hawaii Superferry, which could delay the July 1 launch of the inter-island service, if not halt the project altogether.

Although the bill is likely to make it out of the Senate, it could languish once it gets to House. The House Transportation Committee refused to hear a version of the bill and could refuse to hear the Senate bill as well.

The bills most likely to survive Thursday's halfway mark include Democratic priorities such as providing basic healthcare for uninsured kids, repairing and maintaining public schools and incentives for developers who use renewable energy, solid waste diversion, recycled wastewater and other "green" initiatives.

ETHANOL-FREE GAS?

Meanwhile, a House bill that would allow service stations to have an ethanol-free gas pump to accommodate older and smaller engines, will probably die once it leaves the House.

Sen. Ron Menor, chairman of the Energy and Environment Committee, said such a measure would water down the ethanol mandate and weaken the state's effort to reduce its dependence on imported fuel.

"If the bill crosses from the House to the Senate, I would hold the measure in my committee," he said.

Republicans and Democrats have found common ground on tax relief measures and innovation initiatives.

Many of Republican Gov. Linda Lingle's economic innovation proposals remain alive, although some ideas have been taken out of her bills and folded into Democratic vehicles.

"Those are moving forward in one way or another," Finnegan said. "Most are through Democratic bills, but the ideas are moving forward, which we're very pleased with."

Reach Treena Shapiro at tshapiro@honoluluadvertiser.com.