The Chiefs, as you no doubt have heard several thousand times in the last couple of weeks, have the fifth pick in Saturday's NFL draft. It is their highest pick in almost 20 years, going back to 1989 when they snagged Derrick Thomas at No. 4.

But here's what you really need to know: It's not high enough.

The Chiefs have somehow gotten themselves into a mathematical maze that they cannot escape. The fifth pick has turned into the worst pick around for Kansas City. The Chiefs desperately want one of two players. And both will be gone.

Everyone knows the two players the Chiefs want — if you don't, you can always pop on the Internet and check out one of the 4,923,483 mock drafts out there. To save you the time, though, one is Michigan tackle Jake Long, who some scouts see as the new Willie Roaf, a dominant left tackle for the next 10 years. The other is LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey, who some scouts see as an unblockable force.

(I say "some scouts" because, let's be honest, it's still the NFL draft, which means nobody really knows. Both these guys could be great. Both could be mammoth busts. Ask Buffalo about can't-miss left tackle Mike Williams. Ask Chiefs president/GM Carl Peterson about the unblockable Ryan Sims.)

The Chiefs believe that Long or Dorsey could make a huge impact on this season's team. Trouble is, other teams also have scouts. For a while, according to the early buzz, it seemed like Jake Long might be there for the Chiefs at No. 5. Now, it looks like he might go to Miami with the first overall pick.

For a while, it looked like Dorsey might slip down to the Chiefs; now it looks like he will go second or third.

It's true, crazy things happen in the draft — especially when the Oakland Raiders pick in front of you — so it's not impossible that the Chiefs will get a shot at one of those two players. But it looks very unlikely. And that means Kansas City is stuck. Everyone knows the Chiefs' No. 1 need — despite Peterson's protests about the underappreciated talents of 31-year old Damion McIntosh — is an offensive left tackle. The best one will be gone. It's a big problem.

The problem goes deeper. The Chiefs also need a starting cornerback — but apparently there isn't one in this draft good enough to take at No. 5. The Chiefs really could use another receiver, but again, there's no dominant receiver here, not one worth picking that high. They're searching for a disruptive defensive force on the line — especially if they trade defensive end Jared Allen — but with Dorsey gone, they would be settling for second best. Who would have thought that everyone would be gone by the fifth pick?

What's left? The most exciting players who may be on the board at No. 5 — running back Darren McFadden, quarterback Matt Ryan, pass-rusher Vernon Gholston, among others — are not especially interesting to the Chiefs. They obviously don't need McFadden with Larry Johnson's contract ready to roll again. They can't afford to draft a young quarterback like Ryan with the offensive line in shambles (anyway, Ryan will likely hold out for a long time; the Chiefs don't need those headaches right now). Gholston is interesting if the Chiefs trade Allen, but there are apparently mixed feelings about him at One Arrowhead.

The Chiefs have few options. They might be able to trade down in the draft — teams might be willing to trade up to get McFadden or Ryan. That wouldn't be a bad deal if they can find a partner. The Chiefs also might get bold and trade up a couple of spots — though that seems unlikely because the Chiefs really don't have any extra draft picks to spare. Chiefs coach Herm Edwards says he wants to get five starters out of the draft. Five. They need all the picks they can get.

The Chiefs very well could trade Allen, which would give them another first-round pick and free them up to take the best defensive guy available, someone like Gholston or defensive end Chris Long or defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis. That might work out.

Here's the most likely scenario right now. The Chiefs will probably do what the draft gurus like to call "reach." Two months ago, Virginia guard Branden Albert was viewed by most people as a late first-round pick, maybe even an early second-round pick. Albert, you will note, has not played a single game over those two months. He has not, as far as I know, been bitten or trained extensively by Master Po.

And yet, wow, his stock has risen in Kansas City. If the Chiefs don't trade Allen (and maybe even if they do) they are definitely leaning toward taking Albert with the fifth pick in the draft. They have fallen in love with his composure and skills; they seem to unanimously believe he can convert to left tackle and start game one.

Already, people who study the draft closely — this would be roughly two-thirds of the people who work for ESPN — scream "Mistake!" They think No. 5 is too early to take the second- or third-best offensive lineman in the draft, and way too early to take a guard you're hoping to convert to tackle (no guard has been taken in the top five in more than 20 years — since Bill Fralic in 1985). The draftniks often say that the biggest mistake a team can make is to draft a player too high because he seems to fit what the team needs.

There may be a point to all that. On the other hand, all this draft talk can get silly. As one of the Chiefs' decision-makers says, "all that matters is you get the right guy. That's it. Everything else is hype." That's true. For instance, if in 2000 the Chiefs had taken Tom Brady in the first round instead of Sylvester Morris, the draft gurus would have gone INSANE, they would have demanded the Chiefs fold the franchise for making such an incredibly stupid pick. But it wouldn't have been a bad move, would it?

If in 1995 the Chiefs had taken unheralded running back Terrell Davis in the first round instead of offensive-line bust Trezelle Jenkins, draft pioneer Mel Kiper might have personally picketed Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs also might have won a Super Bowl.

That's not to say that Branden Albert is the right pick. I don't know. And neither does anyone else. The point here is that the Chiefs have their highest draft pick since the first George Bush was in office, and somehow they're still in a bad spot. They're not going to get what they want. They just hope to get what they need.