WAILUKU, Maui — Debate over Maui's General Plan is focusing on a philosophical question: Should the county plan for the growth it wants or for the growth it expects?

Released this month by the county Planning Department, the proposed plan calls for 40,000 new units on Maui in the next two decades. That's enough to accommodate a projected 42 percent increase in population growth, or 186,300 people by 2030, The Maui News reported.

But while county officials say the island needs to plan for that increase, some in the community think the county should try to take control of population trends, not treat them as inevitable.

"They are assuming we want to have that increase continue for the next 20 years, but I'm not sure that's what the people of Maui want," said Maui General Plan Advisory Committee Chairman Tom Cannon.

County Long Range Planning Division Chief John Summers said accommodating population growth is one of the central philosophical issues raised in the plan.

"I think that's a very valid question, and something that should really be explored as part of the overall policy debate," he said.

Released earlier this month by the county Planning Department, the Maui Island Plan maps out development on the island for the next 20 years. Using "urban growth boundaries" to corral growth, it calls for increasing the density of existing urban areas and restricting urban-style development outside those boundaries. Some proposed projects would not be included in areas set aside for development, stopping them before they get started.

The plan also includes recommendations for infrastructure placement, identifying prime agricultural land, and preserving historical and sensitive areas.

The plan has been sent to the General Plan Advisory Committee, which has until the end of October to make recommendations. It will then be sent to the Maui Planning Commission, and ultimately to the Maui County Council for approval.

In the Maui Island Plan, county planners estimate the island will need more than 40,000 new housing units by 2030 to accommodate population growth. Of that amount, around 24,800 homes are expected to be built by projects that have already been approved. An additional 12,800 units would be added through new projects.

Planning Director Jeff Hunt said the plan attempts to strike a balance between population projections and preserving the "island lifestyle," residents' quality of life.

"It's a managed growth plan," he said. "It's not a no-growth plan, and it's not a free-market plan."

He said that his department did consider adjusting the plan to reflect a lower population than what the studies projected. In fact, the plan anticipates a 25 percent reduction in the projected demand for nonresident housing, reducing the total number of proposed units by 2,600. But Hunt said straying too far from the projections could be risky.

"I think it would be irresponsible for the planning department to come forth with a draft plan that doesn't accommodate projected growth," he said. "There are consequences to doing that."

Inadequate planning for growth on Maui already has led to overcrowded roads and schools and strain on the island's fresh water supplies.

Under the plan, growth boundaries would delineate about 25,850 acres of urban expansion, new towns or high-density in-fill, while growth would be restricted in other areas. While much of the plan document was drafted by outside consultants, the boundary lines were decided and mapped out by Planning Department staff, Hunt noted.

The urban growth areas include lands that have already been proposed as projects, like Maui Land & Pineapple Co.'s Pulelehua in West Maui. Other areas mapped for development apparently came at the county's initiative, such as a proposed mauka expansion of Paia town on Alexander & Baldwin lands currently planted in sugar cane.

A&B Properties Vice President Grant Chun said his company had no immediate plans to develop the area.

"The area included in the map was not something we came up with," he said.

The Maui Island Plan has also drawn attention for the projects it does not include. Notably absent from the maps are proposed developments including Ma'alaea Mauka, Olowalu Town, Ka'anapali 2020, and a joint A&B and ML&P project at Haliimaile. The projects would not be able to move forward as proposed if the plan is adopted, Hunt said.

Summers said planners looked at a number of criteria in deciding what projects to include in the growth boundaries, including public comments at outreach meetings, location and available infrastructure.

"Community sentiment was very important, and if you can't get water to it, or there's a major highway constraint, those are things that have to be considered," he said.

Maalaea Mauka raised red flags about infrastructure and sprawl that would potentially erase the "hard edges" between communities in Central Maui, Hunt said.

"I know there have been some concerns expressed about having Ma'alaea merge all the way into Waikapu," he said. In addition, population growth requirements for the Kihei area had already been fulfilled by other projects in the plan, so there wasn't a need for more housing, he said.

"With Olowalu, I know there was concern about the location, its proximity to employment centers and the traffic it would generate," he added.

Bill Frampton of Olowalu Town LLC said he still hoped his company's project would be considered by the General Plan Advisory Council.

Frampton said the county's plan calls for expanding boundaries to make existing urban centers even larger. Instead, he suggested the county return to its roots by concentrating growth in smaller, walkable towns — towns like Olowalu.

"If the GPAC says, 'We want to hold onto these small towns and communities,' then we feel Olowalu is an appropriate location," he said.

Chun said he didn't have any comments on Haliimaile or other A&B projects.

"I think we're going to need time to digest the contents of the plan," he said.

Teri Freitas-Gorman, a spokeswoman for ML&P, also didn't comment. "Maui Land & Pineapple is still reviewing the draft," she said.

Others gave the plan mixed reviews.

"It maybe doesn't have as many teeth as we'd like to see," said Irene Bowie, executive director of Maui Tomorrow.

While the plan draws up urban growth boundaries, Bowie was concerned it was "vague" on what could happen outside those areas. While dense, urban-style growth would be prohibited, agricultural or rural subdivisions could still be possible.

That raises questions on what it means for projects like Ma'alaea Mauka or Haliimaile to be excluded from the urban growth boundaries — and whether they could move forward anyway in a different form.

"I think it leaves it open for debate, which is probably the last thing we need," she said.

Cannon was also concerned the plan could leave an opening for agricultural subdivisions to "proliferate."

"There's talk about urban boundaries, but there's very little discussion and consideration of agriculture and rural boundaries," he said. "That to me could be a huge loophole."

Frampton said he was concerned that boundaries drawn too large could result in more sprawl, leading to more blending of towns along the lines of a "Kahaluku or Wahului." He said the plan should instead preserve smaller, old-fashioned, walkable towns where residents don't need a car to get around.

"The boundaries need to be thought out on a human scale," he said.

Advisory committee member Stan Franco said he felt the plan — which has been significantly cut back from earlier drafts — did not include enough background information to make it clear why planners made the choices they did.

"I'm not making all those connections from the material I have currently," he said.

But for many reading the plan, it all came down to the numbers. Advisory committee member Dick Mayer agreed with Cannon that planners shouldn't look at past trends as inevitable predictors of the future, or accept a certain rate of growth just because that's what happened in the past.

"I want people to indicate their preferred future — that's what this is all about," he said. "The plan should not necessarily react to forces, but say, 'This is what we want.' "

The draft Maui Island Plan can be viewed online at www.co.maui.hi.us/departments/Planning/gp2030.

For more Maui news, visit www.mauinews.com.