If Hawai'i water polo coach Michel Roy is right, there is one way into the NCAA Tournament this week at the Mountain Pacific Sports Federation Championship in San Diego, and it goes right through three-time defending national champion UCLA.

The MPSF tournament begins tomorrow. Hawai'i (18-8) is seeded fifth and opens against 12th-seeded UC Santa Barbara (5-18) at 8:20 a.m. HST, at the Aztec Aquaplex. A win bumps the Rainbow Wahine into a Friday quarterfinal against the winner of fourth-seeded San Diego State and 13th-seeded Pacific.

A win there would probably mean a semifinal meeting with top-ranked and unbeaten UCLA, which has a 35-match winning streak that dates back before last year's third-straight NCAA title.

"If somebody can beat UCLA it's us," said Roy. "If we can do that, we're in good hands.

"I believe physically we're as big if not bigger than UCLA and we're as fast. We have eight world-class athletes and girls with international experience. If we can put it all together we can win the game."

It is a huge "if."

Hawai'i has not defeated UCLA in 30 tries. And getting a 31st opportunity is no gimme for a mercurial group that won its first six MPSF matches, then lost five of its last seven. The 'Bows, now ranked seventh nationally, were upset by SDSU and Long Beach State two weeks ago.

They missed 30 shots in the shocking loss at 12th-ranked Long Beach, but the defeat at San Diego might have been more galling. A year ago Hawai'i hammered the Aztecs in the MPSF Tournament. Days later the NCAA committee picked SDSU over the 'Bows for an NCAA Championship at-large berth.

That is why Roy believes his team might have to get the MPSF champion's automatic berth this weekend to reach its third NCAA Championship in four years. All he knows now is that he doesn't know what to expect, from the NCAA or his team.

"We need self-confidence," Roy said. "We need to believe we can do it and go for it. One week we're a contender to win, the next week we come home and may not even be in the race.

"We are not over-confident, let's put it that way. ... We worked harder this week than we have all year. Some people may be upset, but the bottom line is work ethic. We have the opportunity to make the greatest comeback of all time. Or not."

NOTES

Starting goalie Serena Bredin has been hurt and Sara Gralitzer started the last eight matches. Bredin is expected back this weekend.

Juniors Angela Turnbull and Kelly Mason lead the team in scoring at nearly two goals a match.

Emily Cox and team captain Anna Sieprath, a four-year starter who was named to the 2006 NCAA Championship All-Tournament team, are the only seniors this year. Sieprath will leave as the school's all-time assists leader. Robin Harney, Megan O'Linn and Kristin Swanson have also decided not to return next year.

The MPSF winner get an automatic berth into the NCAA Championship, May 9 to 11 at Stanford. The eight-team tournament is made up of the five conference champions and three at-large teams.

Former Rainbow All-Americans Iefke Van Belkum and Meike De Nooy will play for the Netherlands at the Beijing Olympics. UH coach Michel Roy expects De Nooy to return to Hawai'i to finish her degree, but she has no eligibility remaining. Van Belkum does, but just signed a lucrative pro contract and probably won't return.

Hawai'i is 21-24 at the MPSF Tournament and has won its last seven opening round matches. Its highest finish is second, two years ago.