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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Friday, December 5, 2008

November retail sales slump said to be the worst in decades

By Jayne O'Donnell
USA Today

Retailers took another battering in November with sales that slumped worse than they had in decades, making continued dire predictions for December seem all the more likely.

Even Black Friday promotions couldn't stop the bleeding.

As has been the pattern during much of the downturn-turned-recession, Wal-Mart remained the only winner, with a 3.4 percent increase in same-store sales over the previous year. Company officials said falling gas prices are helping boost their business as consumers are coming back more often.

The Goldman Sachs-International Council of Shopping Centers index of 37 stores reported that sales dropped 2.7 percent for November, making it the worst month since at least 1969, when the index started.

"The outlook for the final shopping days of the holiday is grim," said Frank Badillo, senior economist at research firm TNS Retail Forward. "The good news is that shoppers are not further tightening their spending plans. The sales pace should not deteriorate much more."

That's heartening for retailers, who are growing used to double-digit monthly sales declines.

Target's monthly sales were down 10.4 percent, Macy's dropped 13.3 percent, Kohl's declined 17.5 percent and Nordstrom was down 15.9 percent.

Gap, which owns Banana Republic and Old Navy, was down 10 percent but saw some positive in the negative. They had to cut prices dramatically, but they did brisk business over Thanksgiving weekend, said Gap spokesman Kris Marubio. Their profit margins on merchandise may be down from last year, but they were able to clear out inventory earlier.

As stock analyst Jennifer Black notes for most retailers: "The Grinch may not steal Christmas but he may just steal the profitability levels."

Mike Brown, a retail strategist with the Kurt Salmon Associates consulting firm, says retailers' problems aren't insurmountable: "Even if (store) traffic is off by 2 or 5 percent, that still means 90 percent of consumer dollars are out there to be gotten. Retailers have just got to battle head to head for market share."

He suggests "compelling product or price points," along with "good old-fashioned customer service."