John Hessick, a car salesman who lives in Wailuku, Maui, has been in the Islands for about 25 years and is active in civic affairs. But he only just learned that the Democratic Party of Hawai'i has caucuses and a presidential preference poll.

Hessick said he has been a Republican for most his life, yet intends to show up at Baldwin High School on Feb. 19 and sign a blue party membership card.

"I've seen the changes that are occurring," he said. "It appears that this year there is going to be a very close race. And, to be honest, I'm kind of an Obama fan. He's brought me out."

Dozens of new people — young and old, Democrats, Republicans and independents —have been signing up for the party so they can have a voice in whether U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois or U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York will get the Democratic presidential nomination.

Party leaders are predicting record turnout but, in truth, the activists who have been most involved with the party over the years are not quite sure what to expect.

"I think the party regulars are bracing for it," said Bart Dame, a progressive activist. "We're both excited by it and worried about whether we are going to be up to the task."

Volunteers who will conduct the caucuses at precincts across the state are used to low turnout and little public or news media scrutiny. The caucuses have never attracted more than 5,000 people so there is no model for what to do if two or three times that many people come out.

'THIS IS HISTORY'

The caucuses are not elections in the traditional sense, they are internal party functions to prepare for the state convention in May, so there is not the same order or oversight as in a primary or general election conducted by the state. The presidential preference poll is scheduled for a minimum of a half-hour and, activists say, it has often taken less time than that for voting at some precincts in previous years.

"We're going to keep it open," said Florence Kong Kee, the party's political director. "We don't know when this kind of interest will happen again. This is history right now."

The closest comparison to this year is March 1988, when Hawai'i was among 20 states to hold Democratic Party caucuses and primaries in what was the first mega Super Tuesday. Hundreds of progressives joined the party to help the campaign of the Rev. Jesse Jackson and his Rainbow Coalition. (Christian conservatives in Hawai'i flooded the state GOP that year for the Rev. Pat Robertson.)

Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis held off Jackson in Hawai'i because of the strength of traditional Democrats on the Neighbor Islands, and Dukakis eventually won the nomination. The Advertiser reported at the time that caucus turnout was about 3,400, although activists for Jackson later put the number at nearly 5,000.

A similar trend may be at work this year. Local volunteers for Clinton believe she may be stronger outside of urban Honolulu and on the Neighbor Islands, where traditional Democrats and labor unions appear to have more influence. Most of the grassroots activity and energy, however, are behind Obama, who was born here and graduated from Punahou School.

Higher caucus turnout would generally favor Obama.

Richard Port, who coordinated the Jackson campaign in Hawai'i in 1988 and is supporting Clinton this year, said caucuses are truer reflections of where core Democrats stand than primary or general elections. But Port, who has been involved in an effort to close the state's open primaries to discourage crossover voting, said he would actually prefer a primary because it would capture the sentiment of a larger share of Democrats statewide.

IT ALL HAPPENS FEB. 19

In the 2006 primaries, for example, about 238,000 voters picked Democratic ballots.

"The caucuses are for people who really see themselves as Democrats," Port said.

The turnout trend also suggests that many Hawai'i Democrats are motivated more by candidates than whether the caucuses have national import. In 2004, when there was little advance media coverage or local campaign attention, activists for U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio helped push turnout to about 4,000.

This year, Obama's local roots and the chance that the first African-American or woman will become the nominee generated interest long before the caucuses were part of the national picture. "I really think it's good for America to break down these ceilings," Port said of issues of race and gender.

Hawai'i Democrats have been gradually moving up the date of their caucuses, which were traditionally held in March, in an effort to be more relevant. The caucuses this year were moved up a week from 2004 and Democrats picked Feb. 19 in part because only one other state —Wisconsin — is holding votes that day. The Democratic National Committee threatened against states leapfrogging their votes into January (and it sanctioned Michigan and Florida for doing so). And local Democrats believed Hawai'i would be lost if the caucuses had been lumped with those of more than 20 other states on Super Tuesday last week.

"We didn't want to get locked into the frenzy of Super Tuesday," said Mike McCartney, a former party chairman. "We had a hunch about February 19."

Dennis Goldford, a professor of politics at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, home of the tone-setting first-in-the-nation caucuses, said the disadvantage of caucuses is that they are harder to participate in than primary or general elections, when voting is usually open all day and absentee voting is possible.

PHONES RINGING

Early caucuses and primaries grew in importance in the late 1960s and early 1970s as a rebellion against the often closed, back-room negotiations political parties typically used to select presidential nominees.

"A caucus makes it harder to participate," Goldford said. "On the other hand, the caucus isn't an election. It's party business. It's a meeting of people to deal with party business, which in Iowa means two things — selecting delegates to the county conventions and arguing over issues and positions to go into the state party platform.

"So they're not technically elections. What the caucuses do is give a preliminary reading of sentiment in the parties for their range of presidential candidates, and the rest of the country does with it what they will."

Over the past week, party leaders have been receiving steady telephone calls and e-mail from voters who want to participate in the caucuses but don't know where to go or what to do.

"It's just crazy," said Lance Holter, the party's Maui chairman, who has been impressed by all the new people who are interested. "Many of these people are independents. These are people who may have voted for (Republican Gov. Linda) Lingle before, but overall they're leaning toward us."

John Buckstead, the party's Big Island chairman, said he has trained more than 100 volunteers for caucus night and is ready for higher turnout.

He said he hopes the party nationally uses the lessons of this year, with all the jockeying between states to move up caucuses and primaries, to agree on a more uniform system of selecting the nominee.

"It may well be time for all states to have real primaries and that we have regional primaries and that these activities be conducted by the state elections people," Buckstead said. "I think it's time to get real about this, that's my personal opinion."

Kimberly Young, a postal supervisor who lives in Leilani Estates on the Big Island, said she has been a loyal Democratic voter for years but had never heard about the caucuses. She said she plans to be at the Pahoa Community Center on Feb. 19 even though she is still unsure about the process.

"I don't know much about caucuses, but I feel compelled because there is someone to finally vote for, instead of against," Young said. "You know what I mean?"

Reach Derrick DePledge at ddepledge@honoluluadvertiser.com.