NEW YORK — Christmas in July? Maybe not a bad idea this year.

Retailers are already talking about price increases of up to 15 percent this year on holiday goods, from tree ornaments and toys to luxury gifts like European handbags and clothing. The main reason? Soaring energy prices.

While most consumers are just starting to think about back-to-school shopping, retailers are already preparing for the critical holiday season. Consumers have been seeing prices creep up for many products, but now escalating cost pressures — also being fueled by the weaker dollar and higher labor costs in China — mean that merchants, from low-price warehouse clubs to upscale clothiers, will pass on more of the burden in the months ahead.

Many stores are still deciding on their holiday prices, and recently receding oil prices could provide a bit of relief. Still, buying that status handbag now might help shoppers save a little. For some items, though, it's already too late.

And any big surge in demand could lead to more bad news on the inflation front, and prompt prices to spiral.

Bigger price increases risk turning off shoppers, who may end up buying fewer holiday gifts to save money. That could mean a serious hit for the economy, since consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of all economic activity and the holiday period accounts for a huge chunk of merchants' sales and profits.

"Truthfully, I probably won't purchase items that go up that much — especially something like Christmas decorations," said Marilyn Reese of Cincinnati, who works at an insurance company. "I will just go with what I have."

Carl Steidtmann, chief economist at Deloitte Research, said price inflation will be yet "another factor that undermines consumer purchasing power and will hurt spending even more."

"This will be a very difficult holiday season," he said.

The price increases come as stores also have to push even deeper discounts this holiday season to attract customers also hit by rising expenses. But that 50 percent off may not be as good a deal as last year, since the original price could be higher.

Even Costco Wholesale Corp., which had been one of the bright spots in retailing, warned last week that its profit is getting squeezed by rising energy costs and it will raise prices further. Richard Galanti, Costco's chief financial officer, specifically cited holiday decor and rotisserie chickens, which are popular for holiday meals.

Holiday decor will be as much as 12 percent pricier this season than a year ago, and rotisserie chicken, which had been $4.99 in New York for years, rose to $5.49 about three months ago and just went up to $5.99 last week.

Toy prices are likely to be about 10 percent higher for the holidays than a year ago, said Sean McGowan, an analyst at Needham and Co.

K-B Toys Inc. says it isn't increasing prices for now. The chain on Monday even unveiled temporary price cuts on some already reduced toys. But the discounts are part of logistical maneuvering. The chain has started consolidating trips from its distribution centers to stores to save fuel costs.

Kathleen Waugh, a spokeswoman for Toys "R" Us Inc., said that prices of some products will stay steady, while others will see "gradual" increases beginning in early fall. Waugh said pricing is still being worked out. But at Kidstop Toys and Books in Scottsdale, Ariz., which offers mostly European brands such as Haba and Corolle, 10 percent price hikes have already begun, according to owner Kate Tanner.

European goods are also getting pricier as the dollar erodes against the euro. New York-based luxury consultant Robert Burke estimates that European status handbags, shoes and clothing will cost as much as 15 percent more this fall.

"No one expected the weak dollar to last this long or get weaker," Burke said.

Prices of mass-market apparel, which have fallen for decades because of oversupply and cheap labor in China, are also rising a bit because of higher wages in that country. That's prompting production to shift to other low-cost countries, such as Vietnam.

Quentin Crenshaw, a spokes-man at J.C. Penney, which buys products from 17 different countries, said the department store chain doesn't expect to increase overall prices during the holidays — even for goods primarily from China, like footwear and porcelain, which are expected to rise in wholesale cost.