Proponents of Honolulu's planned elevated commuter rail are stepping up efforts to prevent a citywide vote on the $3.7 billon project.

Mayor Mufi Hannemann, construction workers and other pro-rail groups have launched a media blitz to prevent opponents from garnering enough signatures to put an anti-rail question on the November ballot.

Rail proponents may have a reason to be concerned about a public vote on rail. Major rail projects in Seattle, Miami, Phoenix and Austin, Texas, have suffered setbacks at the polls. In contrast, rail transit projects in Houston, Denver and most recently Charlotte, N.C., survived ballot votes.

Honolulu's rail backers don't want to risk the project's future with a pubic vote.

"If it gets on the ballot, then it becomes a political campaign — you just don't know" what could happen, said David Wilson of McNeil Wilson Communications. "It'll be a big fight."

Wilson and undisclosed backers recently launched a pro-rail advertising campaign featuring the new Web site www.support railtransit.com along with TV and radio ads. They're joined by the Hawaii Carpenters Union, which recently decided to purchase 280 TV commercial spots a month for three months.

The city already has an extensive publicly funded pro-rail marketing and education effort that includes TV and radio shows. Last week that effort was augmented when Hannemann opted to spend political campaign funds on several media ads attacking opponents of the rail project.

State House Majority Leader Kirk Caldwell, D-24th (Manoa) and a rail supporter, said now is the time to fight the ballot initiative. A vote on rail could signal the death knell for the project, he said.

"The real battle should be now to keep it off the ballot," Caldwell said. "Once it gets on the ballot, I think you're on the losing end. They'll vote to stop the rail system. It's easier to tear something down than to be constructive."

Hannemann hopes to break ground on the 20-mile East Kapolei to Ala Moana system in December 2009. Limited service between Kapolei and Waipahu would begin in December 2012, under city plans.

RIGHT TO VOTE

Those plans could be derailed by a campaign to put an anti-rail initiative on the ballot that kicked off in April. The grassroots group Stop Rail Now (www.stoprailnow.com) set a goal of collecting the signatures of 45,000 registered voters by Aug. 4. The city clerk's office maintains Stop Rail Now will need at least 44,525 signatures to qualify for the November ballot.

The group's backers include retired businessman Cliff Slater, Charley's Taxi President Dale Evans and Panos Prevedouros, a University of Hawai'i transportation engineering professor and president of Hawaii Highway Users Alliance.

Stop Rail Now argues the public has a right to vote on whether the city should proceed with what would be the largest public works project in state history. They want the city to explore nonrail road-construction projects that can reduce traffic congestion. So far the group says it has collected about 30,000 signatures and $30,000 in contributions.

Rail proponents contend the public has had a say on the rail project via elected representatives, extensive hearings and talk-story sessions.

Anti-rail groups are arrayed against a host of parties pushing for the project including the city, construction trade unions and real estate developers.

"They are fighting the battle right now to try and prevent us from collecting signatures," said Dennis Callan, co-chairman of Stop Rail Now. But, "We're determined. We suspect that we've got 55 percent (of people) in our favor and the other side has got 45 percent. That's just a wild guess."

It's difficult to predict the outcome if the rail project were placed on the ballot. No major scientific polls have measured opinion on the project.

In terms of funding, the pro-rail groups seem significantly ahead of the anti-rail groups. The city spent $1.4 million in taxpayer money from August 2005 through February 2008 on public relations and outreach efforts. Hannemann, who's running for re-election, had $1.91 million in campaign cash as of Dec. 31. So far, no well-known candidate has stepped forward to run against Hannemann, giving the mayor the option of using his campaign money to support rail.

The Hawaii Carpenters, with 7,800 members, declined to disclose how much they are spending on their 280 pro-rail ads on TV. Ron Takeda, the carpenters business representative, said the ads are aimed at countering extensive media attention provided to Stop Rail Now.

The union acknowledged that the rail would provide significant economic opportunities for members. That, in turn, is good for the state, Takeda said.

"Certainly skilled tradesmen would get a lot of that work," he said. "You can't have a sick construction industry and a healthy economy."

ANOTHER OPTION

The rail opponents have a fallback if they fail to reach their goal of 45,000 signatures by Aug. 4. That deadline is only the date necessary for getting on the November ballot. Stop Rail Now organizers have said, even if they miss that deadline, they will continue to collect signatures. If they get the required number of signatures after Aug. 4, the city would be required to hold a special election on rail.

The results of rail-related ballot issues on the Mainland varies even within the same community.

For example, in 1999 Dade County Florida voters rejected a sales-tax increase for expansion of the Metrorail system. Three years later voters approved a tax hike for transit. Similarly, Phoenix voters rejected a sales-tax increase for light-rail transit in 1997. In 2000 voters approved a tax increase for the project. In 2004 Phoenix voters also approved expanding the system.

In Austin, a light-rail project has been on hold since voters objected to the plan in 2000. Last year Seattle voters rejected a sales-tax increase for rail. Voters in Houston and Denver approved rail projects in 2003 and 2004, respectively.

This fall Santa Fe, N.M.; Kansas City, Mo.; St Louis; Austin and Seattle also may have rail-related ballot measures.

Recent record-high gasoline prices could help sway public opinion in favor of transit. At the same time a slowing economy could cause some voters to balk at paying the higher taxes required to fund rail transit.

Honolulu's rail project will be funded primarily via a 15-year increase in the state's general excise tax. That 12.5 percent tax hike is expected to generate $3 billion out of the $3.7 billion needed to pay for the project.

Unlike many Mainland communities, Honolulu's transit tax hike was never put to a ballot vote.

"Virtually every other city that has done a rail system since World War II has done a ballot question," said council member Charles Djou, who opposes the project. "It is highly unusual that Honolulu is moving forward with this rail system without a vote.

"If we don't put this issue on the ballot, this issue will never be resolved. This project will always be controversial."