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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, May 18, 2008

COMMENTARY
No quick fixes to economic slowdown in Hawaii

By Pearl Imada Iboshi, State Chief economist

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

Pearl Imada Iboshi
State Chief economist.

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THIS WEEK

Editorial and Opinion Editor Jeanne Mariani-Belding puts Rep. Della Au Belatti and Peter Kay, co-founders of www.HawaiiConCon.org, a nonprofit group focusing on whether the state should have a state constitutional convention, on The Hot Seat for a live blog chat Wednesday from noon to 1 p.m. at www.Honoluluadvertiser.com/opinion

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Each week Editorial and Opinion Editor Jeanne Mariani-Belding hosts The Hot Seat, our opinion-page blog that brings in elected leaders and people in the news and lets you ask the questions during a live online chat.

On The Hot Seat last week was the state's chief economist, Pearl Imada Iboshi.

Here is an excerpt from that Hot Seat session. To see the full conversation, go to The Hot Seat blog at www.honoluluadvertiser.com/opinion and click on "The Hot Seat." (Names of questioners are screen names given during our online chat.)

Jason: What is the state doing to make sure increasing food costs — just look at the food riots around the world — will not drive the elderly and those with tight budgets into hunger? We already pay much higher food prices than people on the Mainland.

Pearl Imada Iboshi: We agree that food costs are of great concern to everyone. Increasing fuel prices are the major factor behind increasing food costs. The state is very active in trying to ensure that we have the proper infrastructure to handle imports of food in the future, especially at the airports and the harbors. The state has also been working on legislation to protect important agricultural land.

Tina: To alleviate the high cost of food, do you think it would be a good idea to take the GET off of food? Hawai'i residents are already struggling; taxing their food is only making it worse.

Iboshi: Economists view the GET as a very efficient tax because it is a low rate with a very large base. The more exemptions it has, the higher the rate will have to be. Additionally, about 30 percent of the GET is exported to visitors. I personally believe that it is better to give tax credits only to those who have the economic need.

Donna K.: Higher gas prices have us over a barrel here. We import everything, not just food. So does the state have a real plan, any plan at all, to deal with the impact of these prices on all our goods and services? Any thought given to working with the shipping companies and a plan to curb the impact on local residents?

Iboshi: The state is making a concerted effort to reduce our dependence on imported fuel. In fact, the governor signed an agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy to be a test case for an ambitious effort to get 70 percent of our energy needs from renewable sources.

Lisa: Do you see any major signs of a recession? If so, what are they and what can be done to ensure the residents of Hawai'i don't suffer too much?

Iboshi: DBEDT has just released its quarterly forecast for the state. We believe that growth rates of personal income after inflation will slow to just below 1 percent in 2008. While this is lower than previous years, we do not expect negative growth. The Hawai'i Tourism Authority is also increasing its marketing efforts targeting North America.

Lewis: Is our unemployment rate going up? I know many people who are out of work. Also, most people work two or more part-time jobs: is there an economic indicator that tracks these folks? Is this a sign of our economy that we work harder than other people across the country to just survive?

Iboshi: Yes, the unemployment rate is going up due to some recent business closures, like Aloha Airlines and Molokai Ranch. However, at 3 percent for the first quarter of 2008, we have one of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation. The 3 percent rate is also very low for Hawai'i historically. According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, we do have a higher rate of multiple job holders, however, it is still only 8 percent of total employed, compared to 5.3 percent for the nation.

Jeff: What impact will rail have on our economy? Besides that, I would think it will help when people can't afford cars any more, including gas. Any thoughts on that one? Are there lots of discussions on this relating to the economy with the governor?

Iboshi: Building a rail line will definitely increase construction spending in the next several years. We have not done an economic analysis, but clearly having a rail line will mean construction not only of the line itself but also will bring about development in the areas around the terminals.

Jo: Since biotechnology and science are the wave of the future, are we doing anything to keep our youth here in Hawai'i? They will need to earn higher wages to support and sustain a family here in Hawai'i. A big part of our community here in Hawai'i work service jobs, and that doesn't pay all the bills.

Iboshi: We have started programs in the schools to teach more science and math in a fun way, through robotics and other kinds of contextual learning. We have also proposed improved opportunities for people already employed to get training. We have also proposed measures to expand our kama'aina come-home efforts to entice residents to return. I agree with you, this is one of the most important efforts we will need to address to ensure our future economic prosperity.

Toucan: So I don't see any plan on the state's part to deal with all the job losses, other than sending these response teams to tell us what we already know. Times are tough. Is there a plan to deal with the huge increase this state will see in demand for social services and programs that deal with the poor and the soon-to-be hungry? Time to wake up.

Iboshi: There are many programs by the state to assist the unemployed, including training and education.

www.Hirenethawaii.com is a Web site that can help you find jobs and training opportunities. There are also one-stop workforce development centers on each island.

John: In light of the economic downturn, what kind of advice are you giving Gov. Lingle for Hawai'i during the next five to 10 years? What type of economy will our children be looking at in the next 10 to 20 years?

Iboshi: Economic growth is cyclical. We have just completed nearly five years of very strong growth and our forecast is for moderate growth over the next few years. My recommendation would be to not look for quick fixes but focus on things that will provide a foundation for continued growth, including building a better educated workforce, fixing infrastructure and making it easier to do business in our state.