NEW YORK— Gas prices are high, food's more expensive and the job market's cold, but the U.S. may still avoid a recession.

That was the message yesterday from a private business group whose index of leading economic indicators defied expectations and inched higher in April.

The New York-based Conference Board said its forecast of future economic activity rose 0.1 percent in April, matching a 0.1 percent increase in March. Economists had expected a 0.1 decrease in April.

The index is designed to forecast economic activity in the next three to six months based on 10 economic components, including stock prices, building permits and initial claims for unemployment benefits.

"These data certainly reflect a weak economy but not one in recession," said Ken Goldstein, labor economist at The Conference Board. The small increases in March and April, which followed five months of decline, could be a signal the economy may not weaken further, he said.

Stocks ended mixed yesterday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 41.36, or 0.32 percent, to 13,028.16. The Standard & Poor's 500 rose 1.28, or 0.09 percent, to 1,426.63 and the Nasdaq composite index fell 12.76, or 0.50 percent, to 2,516.09.

Six of 10 leading indicators that the Conference Board measures rose in April, including stock prices, interest rate spreads and housing permits. Those increases more than offset the sharp declines in average weekly hours worked and consumer spending.

The six-month rate of decline for April, which economists look to as a predictor of recessions, was negative 1.2 percent, which points to sluggish growth at best, said economist Dana Saporta of German investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort.

It remains to be seen whether the economy's deceleration resumes after "a temporary pop from tax rebates," Saporta said. The rebates, which began arriving late last month, provide up to $600 for an individual and $1,200 for married couples, based on income levels. In addition, people are entitled to $300 for eligible children younger than 17.

The Bush administration reiterated yesterday that it was too soon to consider a second stimulus package. After getting an economic update from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Bush said Paulson had assured him people are getting the money as promised.

"It should help our economy, and more importantly, help people pay their bills ... and take care of their families and shop," the president said.

Other economic signs remain mixed. More than half the members of the National Association for Business Economics say the economy has started or will enter a recession this year, according to a survey released yesterday.

They forecast 1.4 percent growth for the year, which would be the weakest growth since the 2001 recession.

"It's too early to determine what the length of this slowdown is going to be going forward, because the most important underlying risk factor, the U.S. housing market, remains in a difficult space," said Roger Bayston, senior vice president of investment manager Franklin Templeton fixed income group.