LAHAINA - State Tourism Liaison Marsha Wienert says she is now sure that September was the lowest month that tourism will reach - this year, The Maui news reported today.

But, she told a sold-out luncheon audience of 40 at the Pioneer Inn's Snug Harbor on Wednesday, she is not confident at all about 2009. In particular, advance bookings for the first quarter - the peak winter season - look dismal.

Some of the rest of the talk by Wienert and Maui Visitors Bureau Executive Director Terryl Vencl was more upbeat. A little. The lecture was, after all, titled "The Up Side of the Downturn."

Both Wienert and Vencl emphasized that island tourism has had its dips but that after each one it comes back "better and healthier." Wienert cautioned, though, that previous dips all had a single cause, such as an airline strike.

This time, Hawaii is in the maelstrom of a worldwide financial crisis of "uncontrollable multiple events."

"We will be stronger and healthier than we were in the past; but in a bad economy, we have to band together," she said.

In Lahaina, that takes the form of Malama Lahaina, a program to spruce up, promote and clean up the visitor centers and to revive and expand community activities from the annual holiday lighting of the Lahaina Banyan Tree to a drive to make Lahaina graffiti-free. (See related story at right.)

The best news about tourism is probably that "tourists love us." They may not have the money to visit now, but visitor satisfaction surveys show that a high percentage of visitors give excellent ratings to the islands.

This is seen in the rate of repeat visitors, now about two out of three.

This is not an unmixed blessing, said Wienert, who used to be executive director of MVB. She said she could remember "freaking" whenever the ratio of returnees to newbies rose over 50 percent.

There are several reasons for that. One, the visitor industry needs to recruit new fans to replace old ones who want to discover new vacation sites.

"It's just a fact of life" that people want to try new things, Vencl said.

Second, returnees spend less money per person per day. A lot less, although a survey found that after the 10th visit, spending returns to the level of the second visit. Wienert cautioned that the sample of 10-plus visitors was "very small."

Thus it is a matter for concern that the returnee-to-newcomer ratio from the Western states, which account for two out of every five visitors, has grown to 80:20.

"They're loyal. They love us. They really love us," Wienert said.

The attraction is more than the sun, sand and scenery, she said, citing the range of activities available to visitors in the ocean and increasingly on land.

Of even greater concern to the destination developers is air lift. Given the special woes of the airline industry, flights will not be continued if they don't pay their own way.

Wienert said she and Gov. Linda Lingle have spoken to the chief executives of every airline in the country about lift to Hawaii, and the answer from all was the same: Airlines will no longer fly to destinations where they cannot keep the seats filled.

"Every major city in the country has learned this," Wienert said.

Thus the visitor industry needs to encourage use of flights that exist. Seat numbers have declined but not by huge amounts. Statewide, the loss was around 14 percent through August.

Unfortunately, not all the seats that remain are filled. They will continue to be difficult to fill, because "the day of the $300-$350 round trip from the West Coast is over."

Wienert told of watching a family - parents, four children - boarding a plane at Kona International Airport to end their Hawaii vacation. She figured they had spent at least $3,600 just to get to Hawaii. She suggested that everyone in the visitor industry "show that we appreciate them when they come here.

"Take a minute to say, 'Thank you for coming.' "

Vencl, who described herself as a "glass-half-full type of person," was reasonably chipper about keeping Maui "top of mind" with would-be visitors, even during the period when they cannot afford to come here.

She said at times like this, the proper approach is to "fish where the fish are" and keep Maui's image in front of people in proved markets.

At the same time, the possibility of developing tourism from South Korea and China is tempting. MVB is redoing some of its promotional material into Korean and Chinese. "The Korean honeymoon market is just right for us" and could become tremendous, she said.

Wienert said President Bush's decision to add South Korea to the list of countries whose visitors do not require visas will be very big. The visa waivers for six European countries and South Korea take effect Nov. 17.

She said she counts on seeing South Korean tourism double next year and then double again the year after that.

The numbers will be comparatively low. Korea sent only about 88,000 visitors last year, and at first, most will go to Oahu.

Wienert expects the market will develop the way Japanese tourism did. At first, groups traveled together to Waikiki. As time went on, Japanese tourists became more adventurous and began traveling alone to the Neighbor Islands.

Unfortunately, visitor habits are always in flux and the younger generation of Japanese are not the travelers their parents were.

* Harry Eagar can be reached at heagar@mauinews.com.