President-elect Barack Obama built his campaign on opposition to the Iraq war, and said he'd have all U.S. combat troops out of Iraq in 16 months.

That would be mid-2010.

The question is, will he do it?

The betting is no, not that fast. No matter how you cut it, though, 2009 promises to be a tumultuous year for Obama militarily and for Hawai'i troops in Iraq, Afghanistan and Kuwait.

Many of Hawai'i's soldiers and Marines, who will be deployed to the nation's two wars, are likely to be affected by some big changes to come.

Schofield Barracks' 4,000 Stryker Brigade soldiers and 328 Stryker vehicles are due back in Hawai'i from Iraq in the February/March timeframe.

But upwards of 5,000 Schofield soldiers from units including the 3rd Brigade, 25th Infantry Division headquarters and the 84th Engineer Engineer Battalion already are streaming out of Hawai'i for northern Iraq.

Schofield's aviation brigade is expected to follow.

About 1,700 Hawai'i Army National Guard and Reserve soldiers are now in place in Kuwait, with a mission of base security and management, and convoy escort into Iraq.

Battalions of 1,000 Kane'ohe Bay Marines have been on rotations to Iraq, but indications are that a shift could take place to an increasingly violent Afghanistan.

A new status-of-forces agreement with Iraq likely would mean U.S. troops would be out of Iraqi cities and back on big bases by next June.

A speed-up in troop removals from Iraq, meanwhile, would put a lot of extra pressure on the Hawai'i National Guard soldiers who will be running the U.S. camps in Kuwait, the main entrance and exit point for the U.S. involvement in Iraq.

Asked last week whether removing U.S. combat troops from Iraq in 16 months is a wise course, U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Inouye, D-Hawai'i, didn't say yes or no, but said he does see an end to U.S. involvement there.

"Iraq is a sovereign nation, and it would be unreasonable for us to expect to be there forever," Inouye said. "I think the Iraqis have so indicated that they would hope that we would leave, and we will leave with honor, and leave the place better than we found it. So I think we can be proud."

Obama's transition to the White House will be the first in wartime since 1968, when Richard Nixon became president during the Vietnam War.

Anthony Cordesman, a defense analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in a new report that Obama "is not going to have time to meditate, have task forces examine broad changes in strategy, and think conceptually. As of Jan. 20, he will have to deal with the inheritance of ongoing wars and crises in many aspects of defense."

Obama will have to deal with difficulties in the U.S.-Iraq relationship and the recommendation that 20,000 to 25,000 more U.S. troops be deployed to Afghanistan, Cordesman said.

IN BRIEF

PEARL HARBOR CENTER BREAKS GROUND

Some survivors of the Dec. 7, 1941, attack on Pearl Harbor joined the National Park Service, the Navy and Hawai'i politicians in breaking ground last week on what will be a new $58 million USS Arizona Memorial museum and visitor center.

The current facility, built in 1980, was designed for about 750,000 visitors a year. The National Park Service, which runs the memorial, gets about double that.

Fred Ballard, a spokesman for the Department of Veterans Affairs in Hawai'i, remembers the facilities that existed before the visitor center was built.

The Navy ran launches out to the Arizona Memorial, but the waiting area, near the spot where they dock now, was pretty spartan.

"All there was was kind of an overhead structure, and it wasn't very big," Ballard said. "People would just come down and get in line, and that line could snake around the inside of the overhang, and then go straight out into the elements."

Ballard, who was in the Navy and part of a group out of the Fleet Reserve Association raising funds for the visitor center, said the group got pretty creative in raising funds.

When the marble floor of the Arizona Memorial was determined to be too slick when it rains and it was removed, the group saw opportunity.

"We spent many a night chopping that flooring up into little itty bitty pieces and putting it on a blue card that had the story of the Arizona on it," Ballard said.

The group sold the cards for a buck.

GIANT RADAR BALL ON MISSILE MISSION

For those who might have seen the Sea-Based X-Band Radar (the giant floating golf ball) sail out of Pearl Harbor recently, here's an update.

Chris Taylor, a spokesman for the Missile Defense Agency, said the SBX, as it's called, will participate in a missile defense flight test before the end of the year.

The ballistic missile defense system test will entail the launch of a target from Kodiak, Alaska, and an interceptor from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

The SBX will return to Pearl Harbor some time after the first of the year, Taylor said.

The SBX had returned to Pearl Harbor for scheduled biennial vessel surveys and inspections by the American Bureau of Shipping, and minor modifications and routine preventative maintenance, Taylor said.

Reach William Cole at wcole@honoluluadvertiser.com.