If you like the price of gas today — just wait until tomorrow.

Pump prices in free fall are the silver lining in a cloud of financial darkness that hangs over Hawai'i and the nation.

On O'ahu, the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline is poised to fall below the $3 threshold today for the first time since April 16, 2007.

Tomorrow's price will likely be lower still, and Saturday's even lower than that.

The downward trend began after the average price of regular gas peaked in Honolulu at $4.39 a gallon on July 29. The descent started slowly, with prices even rising briefly by a fraction of a cent four times. But by Aug. 24, the price was falling every day and picking up steam.

Recently, the drops have been "unprecedented," said Jeff Spring, Southern California spokesman for AAA, the auto association that tracks gas prices nationwide.

"It's just been falling off the edge of a cliff for the past two or three weeks," he said. In past week, the average price has been falling by about three or four cents a day, he said.

The Web site www.honolulugasprices.com said Costco Iwilei had Honolulu's cheapest gas yesterday at $2.46 a gallon. Some Mainland markets have gasoline at less than $2 a gallon.

Spring said he sees nothing to indicate the gears would reverse anytime soon. Typically, he said, downward price trends last around 12 weeks, and then level off. This slide has already lasted about 11 weeks in Honolulu. And with the current accelerated nationwide drop, it's tough to predict when it could end, he said.

Crude oil closed yesterday at $56.16 a barrel — the lowest price since January 2007. The U.S. Energy Department projected that in 2009, petroleum consumption would be off by 250,000 barrels a day compared with this year.

"Nobody seems to know as of today what's going to happen," said Bill Green, former owner of and current consultant to the Kahala Shell station. He said some analysts who study the market contend gas prices could level off by April.

"I think there's more room for it to go down. We know it's a lot lower in really low-ball markets on the Mainland — around $2 a gallon."

EXCISE TAX BREAK

Lower fuel prices offer some solace to dealers as well as motorists, said Green.

"The biggest advantage for us when the price goes down — and a disadvantage when the price goes up — is the cost of processing the credit cards. And, other than rent, that's probably the biggest cost we have in doing business."

Green acknowledged that decreased oil demand is the main cause of the price drop here. But he pointed out something else that many folks in Hawai'i may have forgotten: Consumers are currently paying no state excise tax at the pump.

One person who remembers is Lowell Kalapa, president of the nonprofit Tax Foundation of Hawai'i. He said the 2007 state Legislature enacted a two-year excise tax exemption on gasoline as relief to consumers when gas prices were going up.

At the time the exemption from the excise tax was approved, it saved drivers about 12 cents on a gallon of gas.

Now, as prices plummet and the state tries to head off a potential budget deficit amid an economic crisis, Kalapa questions the wisdom of maintaining the exemption. The excise tax could pump $32 million more into the state's general fund annually, he said.

"Sure, my pocket is a little fuller because of the exemption," said Kalapa. "But, at the same time we don't have textbooks in the schools for our kids. Do we need the exemption? Or do we need the revenues to run our schools, and our prisons, and our social services? Which is more important to me?"

Lawmakers are in a bind, he said. They need the money, but they may lack the resolve to reinstate the excise tax on gas.

"I don't think they're going to take any action," Kalapa said. "They're just going to let it sit there and let it expire at the end of next June. Because they're afraid their constituents are going to be angry."

If they take no action, the exemption will expire on June 30, 2009. Then, no matter how low gas prices might be, they'll go up.