First thing first: Give thanks, if you are a 49ers fan.

Why? Because once again, long before the regular season is finished, you can already plan ahead for your January weekends without any possible conflict from playoff games.

For the sixth straight year.

Second thing second: Do not believe the hype. These next five 49ers games, beginning Sunday in Buffalo, are not "critical" or "definitive" or "crucial" in terms of quarterback Shaun Hill's future or interim coach Mike Singletary's future or anyone's future.

Why? Because the next truly crucial day on the 49ers' schedule is Dec. 29. That's the day after the regular season ends. It is when the front office and ownership will have to make their next batch of crucial decisions.

Before then, what happens is mildly fascinating. It might even be entertaining. But it is not that important.

Some people believe Singletary has to win a fixed number of games to retain his job. I think it's more a case of showing whether he can work with the staff and players to establish himself as a credible coach. If the 49ers play poorly and still win, or play great and still lose, what does it matter at this point?

Before practice Wednesday, in fact, Singletary rejected any notion that he is "auditioning" for the permanent head-coaching job — or that he would even be reminding his men that some of them are playing to retain their jobs with the team next season.

"No, we don't talk about that at all," Singletary said. "Right now I don't want to talk about what's going to happen after the season. I just want to talk about Buffalo. Because we're going to need every thought, every heartbeat, to be in that game to win it. The mindset is, you don't really audition. You just do your job every day. Everything else will take care of itself."

That's a pragmatic attitude. Smart, too. After all, even if Singletary and the players are indeed "auditioning" for next season, the person for whom they are auditioning might not even be around in January to evaluate them.

That person, of course, would be General Manager Scot McCloughan.

You knew that some blame for this lost season in a string of lost seasons would get around to McCloughan eventually. But as the weeks have progressed, it has been curious to watch the big 49ers wheel of scapegoat fortune spin and spin and land on various targets.

First, it stopped at Coach Mike Nolan, who finally talked himself into one too many bizarre rationalizations for defeat, and was fired. Then it pointed at tight end Vernon Davis, for dropping too many passes.

After that, the wheel landed on mysterious and evil team executive Paraag Marathe, for the crime of ... well, being in the replay booth and providing his opinion at the request of the head coach, I guess. And then the scapegoat needle stopped at offensive coordinator Mike Martz, for totally messing up that final minute of a loss in Arizona.

Now, in the past week or so, the wheel seems to have stopped squarely on the space with the picture of, that's right, McCloughan. As a foil for the team's angry constituency, he makes more sense than some of the others.

McCloughan has had a big say in picking the roster, even when he was beneath Nolan on the flow chart. McCloughan also had a voice in Nolan's firing and is theoretically at the top of the football food chain. McCloughan reports only to the owners, the York family. (Always the focus of an omnibus scapegoat needle, though it's inconsequential because owners don't fire themselves.)

So. Is it possible that McCloughan could lose his job Dec. 29? Yes. But frankly, that would seem unlikely.

Scapegoats are fun. But the 49ers' depressing situation is a lot more depressingly complicated than just one guy.

My take on McCloughan: He is an earnest, hard-working personnel guy with a pretty good eye for drafting or signing defensive talent (Patrick Willis, Manny Lawson, Justin Smith). But his offensive talent evaluation has been largely pedestrian and not so impressive. Except for Frank Gore, which 49ers drafted under McCloughan's watch have exceeded or even met expectations?

McCloughan has also not yet demonstrated that he knows how to assemble and support all facets of a football organization. When you see higher draft picks sitting on the bench — but still on the roster, because they haven't been cut — that means the coach and general manager do not agree.

The problem with laying all the blame on McCloughan, however, is that we really and truly don't know how much power he wielded over the past few years. For example, Martz was much more of a Nolan hire than a McCloughan hire.

The Yorks always prefer to find a way to stir waters the least. But the rise of Jed York in the organization — remember, he's the one who sat down and informed Nolan of his firing — should mean a more edgy approach. McCloughan won't automatically be rehired. He will have to sit down and defend himself and lay out a detailed plan — for the coaching staff, personnel staff and roster.

After that, the Yorks will probably keep McCloughan, who in turn will decide whether to keep Singlerary. My hunch is, McCloughan has made up his mind already. But the 49ers are not going to finish the season with a five-game winning streak. So his plan can't be the same old stuff. There needs to be some big moves, at big positions, in big jobs.

Last thing last: January is going to be a big, busy, important month with the 49ers around here. The rest of November and December? Not so much. Relax and enjoy the holiday season while you can.