COMMENTARY
Situation in Iraq remains fragile
By Kevin Ferris
BAGHDAD — The city was eerily quiet on Saturday. There were no reported terrorist attacks. Zero. Earlier this year, it wasn't unusual to see several hundred a day.
But on Saturday, from atop the Memorial to the Unknown Soldier — built by Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s — all seemed well. There was smoke in the distance, but that was from a refinery to the south. Perhaps the memorial's giant dome, meant to represent a traditional warrior's shield, was extending its protection over Baghdad.
When you're part of a press delegation to Iraq organized by the State Department, much planning goes into showing the positive side of U.S., coalition and Iraqi efforts. But even the best PR person can't plan an attack-free day.
No, that's the result of a monumental, yearslong effort by hundreds of thousands of U.S. forces and even more Iraqi soldiers and police. It comes after great sacrifice, much grieving, and billions of dollars spent.
In part because of those costs, there will be no celebration. Some are grateful, but when discussing the changes here, one word comes up over and over: fragile. Yes, the developments of the past year are promising, but this isn't over. The situation is fragile.
You hear the word in briefing rooms inside the Green Zone, on the streets of the struggling Doura market area in Baghdad's Rashid district, and in last month's Defense Department report, "Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq."
There are several reasons for the improved security:
With so much having gone right — finally — why the worries about fragility? Here's a short list of concerns heard over the past few days:
It's tempting to look at the successes of the past two years and say: "That's enough. Let the Iraqis take it from here."
But if Iraq isn't ready to keep the pressure on al-Qaida and other extremists, and those groups can roll back security gains, governmental and political progress will be lost, too. Officials will be focused on survival, not public service.
There will be a drawdown of U.S. forces, no question. In fact, it's already happening. But how we leave and what we leave behind will be just as important as why we came, as the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, often says.
A day free of attacks in Baghdad doesn't mean all is well. It is a time to say a prayer of thanks for those who made it happen — and then get back to work to make sure more days like it will follow.
Kevin Ferris is commentary page editor of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
