Stop me if you've heard this before, but there likely will be more bad economic news for Hawai'i in the next couple days.

Tourism officials will soon announce arrivals for August, and they are likely to be down by a double-digit percentage as expensive airfares, a slowing U.S. Mainland economy and traveler worries about investments took their toll on Hawai'i vacations.

It's just another economic setback for the state.

Worries about Hawai'i's well being are common these days, with discussions about its economic health taking place at dinner tables, coffee shops and even surf lineups. People can tick off layoffs that have afflicted large operations — such as Maui Land & Pineapple Co., Aloha Airlines and Molokai Ranch — to the small — such as Compadres Bar & Grill at Ward Centre.

Layered on top of this are apprehensions about what is happening nationally and how Washington and Wall Street will solve a stability problem with financial markets. President Bush in a special address to the country yesterday warned of financial panic that would stretch across the nation if an unprecedented $700 billion bailout for Wall Street firms doesn't pass Congress.

"I don't think anyone has seen a perfect storm the way it exists now," said Robin Campaniano, president and chief executive officer of AIG Hawaii, one of the state's largest insurance companies. "You look around and realize people aren't working as much."

The tourism numbers are expected to show that Mainland and international visitor arrivals are down from last year. State figures for passenger arrivals — a figure that includes travel by residents and visitors — were off by about 14 percent for August.

Visitor numbers were knocked back to August 2002 or 2003 levels if the counts are in line with that percentage decrease. It's also in line with the about 15 percent shortfall that tourism officials have been predicting for the state's largest industry, which is also one that drives employment for many other businesses.

Compadres, a one-time hot spot that opened almost 25 years ago, announced yesterday its Ward location will close tomorrow after its Lahaina restaurant served its last taco last week. Also yesterday, state schools Superintendent Patricia Hamamoto talked about possibly cutting 165 positions as she deals with millions of dollars in proposed budget cuts.

That came after Tuesday's news that the state was forced to postpone a $625 million bond issue because of higher borrowing costs as investors, spooked by Wall Street's crisis, pulled back from such bond purchases. The bond issue would help fund increased public works construction in the state and is a key part of Gov. Linda Lingle's economic plans.

Last week, the litany included an economic report that shows Hawai'i is slipping into recession and unemployment rates that reached 4.2 percent, the highest in more than six years. Tourism officials also voiced worries last week as the stock market sank, saying they were concerned that people looking at paper losses in their stock portfolios and retirement accounts would be reluctant to book vacations.

And that's not even going into worries about the nation's financial system and whether bailouts being discussed on Capitol Hill will be effective if enacted.

Or going into the higher gasoline, electricity and grocery prices that Hawai'i residents here are paying.

IN COMPARISON

All this is probably taking a toll on people, said David Hammes, head of the economics department at the University of Hawai'i-Hilo.

"Uncertainty and pessimism feed in to a climate of reducing investment and spending," Hammes wrote in an e-mail.

"This reduces economic activity, slows job growth and incomes, and raises unemployment rates."

There is debate about how bad things are in the state and whether the current economic anxiety is worse than other notable rough patches in recent decades, including the post-9/11 slump and the lingering malaise of the mid-1990s.

For now, apprehension about the economy isn't translating into what would count as a deep downturn in the economy, said Byron Gangnes, director of the Hawaii Economy Project for the University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization. Payroll job count is no longer growing but there hasn't been a big decrease either, while personal income adjusted for inflation hasn't shown a significant contraction, he said.

"If you were to go back and look at the mid '90s, we had several periods of job losses and income losses," Gangnes said. "I don't think what we've seen so far is comparable to that long drawn-out stagnant period we'd seen in the mid-1990s."

Campaniano notes that tourism is back to the levels of four or five years ago when the local economy wasn't terrible. Still, he said he does notice his business slowing as people get rid of their third car or swap an SUV for a smaller vehicle.

He said he also believes that while Hawai'i's unemployment rate remained well below the national average of 6.1 percent in August, it may not represent the underemployment, where workers are let go from their second job or have their hours cut.

"The good news is our unemployment figures look pretty decent, but the underemployment figures concern me," said Campaniano, who also noted some of the economic problems may be masked by tight-knit families here.

"I think one reason why we have less of a bankruptcy and foreclosure problem is that you've got families pulling together to take care of the debt."

DOUBT REMAINS

Yet both Campaniano and Gangnes said the air of uncertainty lingering around Wall Street's problems along with the decline in stock markets, may take a further toll. Gangnes worked on the University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization report that showed Hawai'i's economy contracting this year.

"There's certainly a lot of worrisome developments," Gangnes said. "This may be one of the most uncertain times we've had in a long time."

Some of the slowdown in economic activity may be occurring because well-known kama'aina companies such as Aloha Airlines have gone under or had to lay off people. That bad news may carry a more significant psychological impact for local residents, said Leroy Laney, a professor of economics and finance at Hawai'i Pacific University. Also hurting spending can be worries about a decline in home prices and investment portfolios.

"All those things would cause a consumer to cut back or retrench," Laney said.

But he said people shouldn't despair since Hawai'i's economic cycles usually involve short downturns and longer expansionary periods.

"Good times will return again. It's not like we've permanently fallen off of a cliff," he said. The rebound may come in 2010 or 2011.

"All you can do is just hang on and know that eventually good times will return."