Of an estimated 15,000 jobs in Hawai'i expected to be created or saved through federal stimulus money in the next few years, just over 1,400 direct local jobs can be tied to the funds so far.

The bulk of those are in state and federal government, with much of the impact coming in the form of jobs saved that would have been eliminated without the money.

Overall, 1,412 direct local jobs are tied to $39.8 million in stimulus funds spent through Sept. 30, according to state and federal sources. Of that, 343 jobs can be directly tied to private-sector employers. An additional 793 jobs were reported by the state, 250 were reported by federal agencies and 26 were tied to counties.

Some jobs reported by government agencies were created or saved by vendors. However, neither the state nor federal government track how many of the jobs they report were in the private sector. It's believed that most of the jobs reported by government agencies were created or retained internally.

"Most of the jobs in the initial go-around have been in the government sector," said Mark Anderson, a deputy director in the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism who tracks stimulus funding for the state.

That could change as more stimulus money gets spent, and officials say that will happen next year when the bulk of the job creation is expected to occur.

For now, stimulus money is helping local government avoid some job cuts. However, the concern is that those saved and created jobs may not be sustainable when the federal money runs out in a few years.

For example, the Honolulu Police Department will get $5 million in federal stimulus money to hire 21 additional police officers. The money will pay the salaries and benefits of those officers for three years with a promise from the city that it will pay for a fourth year.

Similarly, a host of administrative, managerial, clerical and educational jobs within state government are being supported via federal stimulus funds. That money is helping to stave off layoffs today.

However, "That federal resource, you have to assume, is going to disappear at the end of the stimulus package and that will be a serious issue at that time," Anderson said.

$820 MILLION SO FAR

Stimulus money is aimed at three main areas — job-creating construction projects, tax benefits and entitlement programs.

Through September, Hawai'i had been awarded $820 million in stimulus funds. About $150 million was actually received, of which nearly $40 million was spent on potentially job-creating activities. Separately , at least $296 million of stimulus money has been spent on non-job-creating entitlement programs including unemployment insurance, food assistance , medical assistance and foster care, according to the state.

Overall, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act is expected to bring about $1.4 billion into the state and create or save 15,000 jobs during a two-year period ending in 2011. That figure includes indirect jobs created by stimulus spending.

Most of the money will pay for highways and bridges, transit systems, clean-water projects, public housing improvements and affordable housing.

Government procurement practices and other red tape are expected to push most stimulus spending off until next year. That's when a surge in private sector jobs should occur, said Jennifer Sabas, U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye's chief of staff in Honolulu.

Significant construction projects "are going out to bid — they're just starting, so that the (jobs) number will ramp up as the work starts to get done," Sabas said.

ACCURACY ISSUES

The stimulus program is expected to result in unprecedented levels of transparency, oversight and accountability regarding how the money is spent. However, the federal, state and private sector has had difficulty reporting accurate job counts.

The state recently reduced its count of stimulus jobs created and saved from 926 to 793 as of Sept. 30. That reduction of 133 jobs was attributed mainly to job calculation errors at the Department of Education.

According to a November report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office, government and businesses are making a made good-faith effort to report accurate job creation statistics. However, the report also found a range of significant reporting and quality issues that still need to be addressed.

The next release of stimulus job data for Hawai'i is scheduled to occur early next year.