O'ahu's housing market downturn intensified in January with a 10.1 percent decline in the median price and a nearly 50 percent drop in the number of sales for previously owned single-family homes.

The median price, which slid to $539,500 last month from $600,000 a year earlier, was the lowest for any month since February 2005, according to data from the Honolulu Board of Realtors.

The decline in sales — a 46.5 percent drop to 122 transactions — was so steep that the last time there were fewer sales for any month was February 1998 when only 115 homes sold. The next lowest mark was 109 sales in January 1997.

Sandra "Sam" Bangerter, president of the local real estate agent trade association, in a statement said that current economic conditions are causing buyers to take a wait-and-see attitude that hurt sales last month.

"We hope that the federal efforts to restore not only the housing markets, but the entire economy, will be successful," she said.

With so few sales this year to date, it's hard to gauge if median prices are headed for a double-digit decline this year after declining only 3 percent last year.

That's because the median price, which is a point at which half the sales were higher and half lower, can be influenced by the mix of properties sold.

For instance, only two homes sold last month in Wahiawa for a median $498,800, which was 19.5 percent higher than the $417,500 median for six homes sold in the same month last year. In the Kapahulu-Diamond Head area, there were four sales last month for a median $542,500, down 40.3 percent from the $909,000 median on 18 sales a year earlier.

Local brokerage firm Prudential Locations recently forecast a 6 percent to 10 percent median price decline by midyear, while noting that price movements, which vary by neighborhood, could be down more than 15 percent in some areas.

Moody's http://www.Economy.com forecasts that O'ahu's median home price will fall 30.9 percent between the second quarter of 2008 and early 2011, which if averaged could be close to 14 percent this year and next year.

The University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization is close to completing a forecast that is expected to include a projected home price decline half that of the http://www.Economy.com forecast.

Harvey Shapiro, research economist for the Honolulu Board of Realtors, last month predicted that the median price this year will hold within 10 percent of last year's mark.

Shapiro, in a statement announcing January's sale results, said a pickup in sales volume appears possible in upcoming months judging from the number of pending sales last month, but that the local market is now following the pattern on the Mainland of very slow sales and diminishing prices.

In the condominium market, the median price last month declined 5.8 percent to $305,000 from $324,000 a year earlier, but was unchanged from December.

Last year, the condo median fluctuated significantly by month between an 11.6 percent decline in September and a 4.7 percent gain in February. For the full year, the median was unchanged at $325,000 compared with the prior year.

The number of condo sales last month dropped 50.9 percent to 159 from 324 a year earlier. Condo sales haven't been as low for any month since February 1998 when there were 150 sales.