It is often said of military operations that amateurs talk about strategy, but professionals discuss logistics. Given a mandate to deploy an additional 32,000 troops to Afghanistan, logisticians in Army Gen. David Petraeus' headquarters have much to discuss. Assuming they can get the troops there, can they deliver the beans and bullets that sustain them?

A look at a map and at recent events is not encouraging.

Afghanistan is landlocked. Clockwise from Kabul, it is bordered by Tajikistan, a tiny bit of China, Pakistan, Iran, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The Chinese and the Iranians certainly aren't about to let us transit their territory or airspace to support our military operations in Afghanistan. That means we've got to go through one or more of the "other-stans" to get there.

Pakistan is the answer today, but that may not continue much longer. The Taliban have taken notice that 75 percent of our supplies are trucked some 800 miles from Karachi to Kandahar. In December, bombers destroyed hundreds of these trucks staging at Peshawar. Last week, militants demolished a major bridge in the famed Khyber Pass. The Taliban have long been supported and protected by Pakistani military intelligence, and our drone attacks on Taliban havens infuriate average Pakistanis. If President Asif Ali Zardari's shaky government should be replaced by one of his Islamic rivals, the road through Pakistan will be closed.

Besides the Taliban, who else benefits? Lt. Gen. Leonid Sazhin of the the Russian Federal Security Service, recently noted that, "If the Khyber Pass and the road to Kandahar get blocked by the Taliban, then the U.S. and NATO have no choice other than the alternative routes through Central Asia. And as airplanes can't deliver much, ground transport corridors are necessary and here Americans need Russia."

Turkmenistan is one of the most isolated and repressive states in the world, but it has a very long border with Afghanistan. Little wonder that Petraeus was in Turkmenistan last month to "discuss issues of mutual interest." Following a Jan. 15 meeting, a Russian newspaper claimed that the Turkmen president "expressed readiness to — accommodate warehouses and logistics bases for the supply of NATO troops."

Turkmenistan's foreign minister denounced this report saying that "such publications are blatant misinformation and are clearly provocative."

Provocative to whom? To Russia, of course.

Soviet troops departed from Afghanistan in 1989 by way of Uzbekistan's "Friendship Bridge." Uzbekistan offers a railroad into Afghanistan and an excellent air base at Karshi-Khanabad (known in Pentagon shorthand as "K2"). The Air Force used to be at K2 and the 10th Mountain Division staged there in 2001. Uzbek President Islam Karimov kicked us out in 2005 in retaliation for joining international calls for an independent investigation of charges that his forces murdered hundreds of unarmed protesters. Maybe we can come back. The Uzbeks will play us off against the Russians for the best deal.

Then there is Tajikistan, another stop on Petraeus' recent road trip. In 2007, the U.S. helped build a $37 million bridge linking Tajikistan to Afghanistan. U.S. military aircraft have sometimes stopped to refuel at the airport in Dushanbe. Economically, Tajikistan is on the ropes. A senior government economist recently said that the current situation "is not a sustainable economic model, as it makes Tajikistan dependent on Russia's economy." The Tajiks would be very happy to be dependent on someone else. However, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev may not share their joy.

Does Russia view all of this with indifference? Recent events in Kyrgyzstan suggest that it does not. Kyrgyzstan, which sits just on top of Tajikstan, recently announced that it will evict the U.S. from Manas Air Base after securing a Russian economic assistance package in excess of $2 billion. We can ill afford to lose this air base. According to Air Force public affairs officers, "Manas Air Base currently serves as the premier air mobility hub for the International Security Assistance Force operating in Afghanistan."

Russia may have a common interest with the U.S. in dismantling Islamic extremism, but it also has a strong interest in preventing its former Central Asian satellites from becoming U.S. satellites. Russia's Medvedev is sending a message: If we want to feed our troops in Afghanistan, it's time to pick up the phone to Moscow.

Reach Thomas D. Farrell at (Unknown address).

Retired Col. Thomas D. Farrell, a Honolulu resident, served as an Army intelligence officer in Iraq from June 2005 to May 2006. He wrote this commentary for The Advertiser.