A new study says about one in eight drivers in Hawai'i was uninsured in 2007 and projects the number of motorists without insurance will increase as unemployment rises.

The study by the Insurance Research Council found that 12 percent of Hawai'i drivers in 2007 had no insurance, based on an examination of claims made by people who were injured by uninsured drivers.

The report is one of the few nationally attempting to quantify uninsured motorists, a problem that has been discussed in Hawai'i since the 1990s. Hawai'i's uninsured motorist rate was under the national rate of 13.8 percent.

At least two experts said the Hawai'i number may be higher.

"I don't have a recent study in hand of my own, but my gut feeling is that that (12 percent) is actually a little bit low for Hawai'i," said state Insurance Commissioner J.P. Schmidt. He said several years ago there was a study that estimated uninsured made up one in 10 drivers, while some here believed the figure closer to one in five.

Uninsured motorists are problematic to other drivers because people struck by them may have to sue to recover damages. Insured motorists are sometimes advised to pick up uninsured motorist coverage so they may recoup losses if they get in an accident with an uninsured driver.

"If you have uninsured people out there, it raises the costs for everybody else," Schmidt said.

The problem probably will get worse given the economy, though.

The Insurance Research Council said the number of uninsured drivers typically jumps when the economy sours.

"My fear is that in a downturning economy the first thing people shed is auto insurance," said Big Island resident K.J. "Skip" Nielsen, western division vice president for Verification Solutions Inc., an online system used for checking vehicle insurance coverage.

"They don't view it as a necessity. They view it as a luxury."

The IRC said it anticipates the number of uninsured motorists nationally will rise to 16.1 percent in 2010.

Over the years, Hawai'i lawmakers have examined various ideas for solving the problem, which feeds into insured drivers paying rates that are above the national average. According to National Association of Insurance Commissioner data, the average Hawai'i driver paid the 15th highest rate in the nation in 2006, or $853 annually.

Recently, some counties have considered using a new system to verify whether drivers actually have insurance. The Verification Solutions system is sold by Nielsen, who was bureau chief of Utah's Driver Licensing Division for 15 years.

The system allows real-time access to insurance company records by police and motor vehicle licensing offices to check if someone is insured. Florida has run a pilot project using the system, while Wyoming, Texas and Utah have adopted it and another system to find uninsured motorists, according to Verification Solutions' Web site.

Nielsen said that while he was in Utah, the state went to a system requiring insurance companies to make available automobile insurance policy data on a monthly basis, which was then cross checked against vehicles in the state.

The number of uninsured went down as the state began contacting car owners who turned up on uninsured rolls over several months.

Once people understood the state could find uninsured motorists easily, more people started buying policies and insurance rates fell by 11 percent, he said.