A potential primary clash between Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann and U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie would give Democrats two brand-name choices for governor in 2010 but could also test resources during a recession.

Hannemann's decision to back the formation of a committee and begin fundraising, while short of a formal announcement, is for practical purposes the start of a campaign against Abercrombie, who declared in March.

Political analysts say that unlike the previous major confrontation among majority Democrats — former congressman Ed Case's unsuccessful challenge to U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka in the Democratic primary for Senate in 2006 — Hannemann and Abercrombie are closer ideologically and are unlikely to split the party over public-policy issues.

Instead, analysts say, a primary would likely be driven by more subjective themes such as leadership style and ability, which creates more risk the campaign could turn personal. Hannemann can argue he has the executive experience that Abercrombie lacks, while the congressman can counter that his legislative experience in the Islands and in Washington, D.C., make him more seasoned.

Abercrombie, a friend of President Obama's parents and an early advocate of Obama's presidential campaign, has already used his personal connections to the president to portray himself as a candidate of change. Hannemann did not endorse Obama until late in the presidential primary campaign but has sought to build a closer relationship during Obama's visits to the Islands and in meetings on the Mainland.

"Hopefully, it doesn't get bloody and expensive during the primary, so that the Democrats spend all their money and the Republicans just prance along with their campaign money without really a race," said Lance Holter, who leads Maui Democrats.

PERSONAL DYNAMICS

The Akaka-Case primary for Senate created clear dividing lines within the party, with most traditional Democrats in the party's establishment backing the liberal Akaka over the more centrist Case. Many establishment Democrats also rebuked Case for trying to force the aging Akaka out rather than waiting for an open seat.

Neal Milner, a University of Hawai'i-Manoa ombudsman and political analyst, said Hannemann and Abercrombie have more overlapping support within the party. He described both men as smart, strong personalities who are good campaigners.

"One of the interesting things about it that will make the campaign more complicated and nasty if they both run is that, ideologically, they're not very different," he said. "So it's not easy for each of them to say that their beliefs are that much different from the other. And, in fact, they've kind of worked together on the most visible city and county issue recently — the fixed rail."

Milner said Hannemann and Abercrombie could have to find other ways to establish differences, "sometimes that's on leadership issues, sometimes that's on style issues, experience issues, and sometimes it gets tempting to make it on character issues.

"I'm not saying all those things will happen, but I think that those are all possible dynamics in the campaign."

Rick Castberg, a UH-Hilo political science professor, believes Honolulu's multibillion-dollar mass-transit project would be the dominant issue in such a primary. While both Hannemann and Abercrombie support the project, Hannemann has more invested in its fate and is the target of the project's vocal critics.

"I think you have pretty clear choices. Different personalities, different approaches and, certainly, different heights," Castberg said, referring to the roughly 1-foot extra height Hannemann has over Abercrombie. Castberg said the height difference could make an interesting visual on a debate stage.

Hannemann does not have to resign as mayor to run for governor until he officially files nomination papers, so he has until the deadline in late July 2010. Abercrombie does not have to resign to run and can remain in Congress until his two-year term expires in January 2011.

Lt. Gov. James "Duke" Aiona and former state lawmaker and attorney John Carroll are the likely Republican candidates for governor.

DOMINO EFFECTS

If Hannemann does run for governor, that would trigger a special election in 2010 to replace him, since his second four-year term as mayor does not expire until 2012. Honolulu Prosecutor Peter Carlisle and city managing director Kirk Caldwell are among the candidates interested in a mayoral campaign.

Case has announced that he is running to try to replace Abercrombie in urban Honolulu's 1st Congressional District. State Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, D-21st (Nanakuli, Makaha), is looking closely at challenging Case in the primary, and could pick up establishment support from Democrats still unhappy with Case over his move against Akaka.

Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou is running in the Republican primary for Congress.