Ridership on recently opened Mainland commuter trains is outstripping expectations, which could be a positive sign for Honolulu's planned $5.4 billion elevated commuter train.

New commuter trains in Charlotte, Phoenix and Salt Lake City have already beaten their forecast ridership estimates partly because of last year's spike in fuel prices. Whether these new public-transit systems can hold on to and expand ridership amid falling fuel prices and rising unemployment remains to be seen. However, Honolulu city officials said they're encouraged by the ridership trends at recently opened Mainland train systems.

"If Phoenix and Charlotte are doing good, it's a really good sign for us," said City Councilman Gary Okino. "I personally think Honolulu's going to be a lot better than Charlotte or Phoenix because those systems are on the ground.

"I think people are going to be a lot more attracted to our (elevated) system because it's going to be faster and it's going to carry a lot more people."

Ridership is a key barometer for determining the success of a public-transit system. That's because higher ridership can reduce road traffic levels and the amount of public subsidies needed to fund train operations.

The ability of new train systems to beat ridership forecasts runs counter to historical trends. Nationally, ridership on urban train systems tends to fall short of expectations, according to an April 2008 report by the Federal Transit Administration. That study found that 19 federally subsidized train projects completed between 2003 and 2007 are expected to carry, on average, 74.5 percent of their originally forecast ridership. Two of the projects studied exceeded initial ridership forecasts, six were between 60 percent and 80 percent of forecasts, and 10 had ridership levels well below forecasts.

One of the biggest ridership disappointments occurred on the 11-mile Tren Urbano, or urban train, in San Juan, Puerto Rico. That system, which opened in late 2004, is expected to carry just 23.6 percent of its originally forecast ridership. That's 86,796 fewer average weekday boardings than expected.

LOW FORECAST

The ridership successes at recently opened systems reflect changes in forecasting methods instituted because of the major passenger shortfalls encountered by the Puerto Rico train, said city transportation Director Wayne Yoshioka. City officials have consistently expressed confidence that Honolulu's elevated commuter train can meet or exceed a ridership forecast of 95,310 riders a day by 2030 for a route that passes by Honolulu International Airport.

"The travel forecasting side is now very, very conservative, so it almost assures that you're going to hit your mark if not exceed it when you open up," Yoshioka said. "We're certain that (Honolulu's forecast) is conservative."

Honolulu city officials hope to begin construction on the 20-mile East Kapolei to Ala Moana train in December, contingent on federal approval, and launch service in phases between 2013 and 2019.

A preview of what to expect can be found in Phoenix, where a new $1.4 billion, 20-mile light rail train launched service in December. More than 150,000 people rode the new light-rail trains during the first weekend. During January, the system experienced an average weekday ridership of 30,617 boardings, according to Phoenix Valley Metro. That's well above the first-year average ridership forecast of 26,000 daily boardings.

RIDERSHIP SLIPPING

Systems in Salt Lake and Charlotte also are off to better-than-anticipated starts. However, there are signs that ridership in both cities may be slipping as low fuel prices and rising unemployment drive down passenger numbers.

Ridership at the 38-mile Frontrunner train in Salt Lake City, which opened in April of last year, initially surpassed expectations. Ridership peaked at about 8,700 average weekday boardings in August, which was above the first-year forecast of 5,500 average weekday boardings. However, in December, average weekday boardings dipped to 5,311, according to the Utah Transit Authority.

Similarly, the 10-mile Lynx light rail line in Charlotte, N.C., had an average of 13,963 weekday riders in January, according to Charlotte Area Transit. That's well above the forecast of 9,100 average weekday riders during the first year. Still, January's ridership was down sharply from a peak of about 17,000 in July when gasoline prices were higher and the economy was healthier.

After Lynx opened in December 2007, ridership climbed about 23 percent through July 2008. However, Charlotte Area Transit System bus ridership increased by 24 percent, according to a September report by the John Locke Foundation, which is a Raleigh, N.C.-based free market advocate. According to the study, about two-thirds of the increase in Lynx ridership could be attributed to gas price increases, regional growth and economic circumstances, rather than the availability of better transit service.

"This means that ridership is likely to be vulnerable to declining gasoline prices or a strengthening economy," the study stated.

LOCAL CONCERNS

Critics of Honolulu's plan to build a commuter train express similar concerns.

A train, when combined with TheBus, is projected to increase overall mass-transit ridership to 7.4 percent of total transit trips in 2030, compared with just 6.1 percent if the commuter rail line is not built, according to the city. That's a 21 percent increase in public transit ridership. However, mass-transit ridership in Honolulu historically has declined as a percentage of the population during the past several decades.

Rail critic Cliff Slater believes Honolulu's train ridership will not meet expectations because people will continue to prefer driving their autos to work.

"We have overall nationally and locally an underlying decline in ridership," said Slater, who wants the city to build an elevated highway rather than rail. "The fact that we're looking at a market share decline for public transportation despite the billions and billions of dollars that we're throwing at it is evidence that personal transportation is preferred by anyone that can afford it, which is eighty-odd percent of the population."