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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Home prices drop 8.5%, to $585,000

By Andrew Gomes
Advertiser Staff Writer

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser
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Major weakness in home purchases persisted last month on O'ahu, but fairly level inventory helped keep median prices from suffering more than single-digit declines.

O'ahu single-family homes sold for a median $585,000 in April, or 8.5 percent less than $639,000 in the same month last year, according to Honolulu Board of Realtors data.

Condominiums sold for a median $310,000, down 5.2 percent from $327,000 in the same period.

The drops were within the range seen since January — about 4 percent to 11 percent — and are providing some consolation for homeowners and the local economy that price declines haven't been as precipitous as the 30 percent-plus plunges in parts of California and other Mainland markets.

Through the first four months of this year, O'ahu's median single-family home sale price is down 8 percent to $575,000, and the condo median is down 7.3 percent to $305,000.

On an annual basis, prices peaked in 2007 at $643,500 for single-family homes and $325,000 for condos.

Recent lower prices haven't done much to spur more sales, as transactions continued to be down close to 30 percent from a year earlier.

Tom Slavens, a local contractor who builds care homes, bought a house in Kane'ohe last month — but not because of the price. He said he bought it to keep his construction crew employed, and will renovate the 54-year-old house on Hilina'i Street for use as a rental.

Slavens said prices are a little more attractive then they were a year or two ago, but not by much, which is why he believes there are lots of prospective buyers waiting on the sidelines to see if better deals emerge.

"I think people are holding out to see how things are going to go because (prices) haven't really gone down that much," he said.

Harvey Shapiro, research economist for the Honolulu Board of Realtors, said the tight availability of financing and rising job losses are also constraining sales.

There were 189 single-family home sales in April, down 26.2 percent from 256 a year earlier. In the condo market, there were 257 sales, down 33.1 percent from 384 a year earlier.

Sales volume began its significant decline in 2006, but the median price only began to dip last year for single-family homes with a 3 percent decrease. The median condo price was unchanged last year.

The University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization in March forecast that median single-family home prices on O'ahu will fall 9 percent this year, 4.9 percent next year and 0.6 percent in 2011.

UHERO projects the median condo price will decline 8.5 percent this year, 10.4 percent next year and 7.2 percent in 2011.

Shapiro said one major reason single-family home prices haven't fallen more is because builders didn't produce a glut of new housing like they did in some Mainland markets, where a flood of unsold inventory depressed prices.

There were 1,822 O'ahu homes for sale last month, which was down from 1,955 a year ago and 1,901 in March. Shapiro said fewer people are buying, but fewer people are selling, too. Sellers added 471 homes to the market in April, down from 639 in the same month last year.

Condo inventory last month was at 2,514, which was down from 2,629 a year earlier and 2,582 in March.

Based on the inventory and rate of sales, it would take 9.7 months to sell every single-family home listed on the market, and 10.1 months for condos.

A level of six to 10 months of remaining inventory is generally considered to be the range where prices tend to remain more or less flat. Real estate experts caution not to read too much into median prices for the broad market because changes in the mix of sales can skew the median especially when dealing with relatively few transactions.

Among the 10 largest regions on O'ahu for single-family home sales, median price declines over the first four months of this year have ranged from 3.3 percent in Mililani on 57 sales to 20.1 percent in Moanalua-Kalihi on 32 sales. The median price for O'ahu's largest submarket, the 'Ewa Plain, was down 5.6 percent on 102 sales.

Among the 10 largest condo submarkets in the same period, median prices ranged from a 6.2 percent gain in the 'Ewa Plain on 42 sales to a 16.4 percent decline in Downtown-Nu'uanu on 47 sales. The largest submarket, Waikiki, had a 5.8 percent decline on 137 sales.

Reach Andrew Gomes at agomes@honoluluadvertiser.com.