A second wave of the H1N1 flu virus is fast approaching. Will Hawaii be swamped?

State health officials are hoping we won’t get hit like the 46 other states where the virus is widespread. But the truth is, no one knows for certain how badly we’ll be affected. And the outward signs are troubling.
The production and supply of H1N1 vaccine has been limited, unpredictable and slow to arrive. Health officials don’t know when the state will get all of its allocation of 104,000 doses, or even if that amount will be enough. That means the best defense against a major outbreak — inoculating large numbers of people to blunt the spread of the virus — won’t be an option anytime soon.
All the more reason why it’s imperative that the state, health providers and the general public all do their part to help minimize the threat. The H1N1 is a novel virus, meaning that most people don’t have immunity. And a widespread outbreak is not only a public health danger, but an economic one: Imagine the effect on businesses if a large number of their workers are out with the flu, or caring for family members who are sick. And there's the impact on our bread-and-butter industry: tourism.
Some encouraging steps have been taken. The Healthcare Association of Hawaii, which represents health care providers, has been working with the state Department of Health to prepare for an H1N1 escalation.
President Obama’s declaration of a national emergency will make it easier for Hawaiçi health care providers to get waivers from restrictions on adding hospital beds and screening patients outside of emergency rooms, said Toby Clairmont, director of emergency services for the association. That flexibility is key to their plans to segregate flu sufferers and control the spread of H1N1, he said. But even so, he warned, the anticipated flood of new patients will likely force hospitals to prioritize, delaying medical procedures for patients with less pressing needs.
It’s better to avoid a hospital altogether. Those who need the vaccine most — pregnant women, young people six months to 24 years old, those with chronic illnesses and health care workers — should get it as soon as it becomes available. Fears that the vaccine is dangerous are overblown and unwarranted. The vaccine has been rigorously tested and is safer than contracting the virus, health experts say.
Parents should make sure they meet Friday’s deadline to sign up their children, from kindergarten through 8th grade, for free doses through their schools. Otherwise, they’ll have to try and get it privately, which could prove difficult because of the limited supply.
Personal responsibility for one’s health is also a critical wall of defense. More rigorous hygiene habits will help you avoid getting sick. And have contingency plans to care for yourself or a sick family member at home.
It’s also good to keep things in perspective. Swine flu may not be as virulent as other flu strains, at least so far. And even though it killed 11 Hawaii residents, most people who get H1N1 will recover after about a week.
But the virus remains a community concern, and the entire community must respond — not with complacency, but with focused, sensible action.