While things have been quiet recently in the cornerstone political fight of 2010 — the race for governor — don't expect that to last too long.

The stakes are simply too high. The Hawai'i governorship is a political plum unlike any elsewhere in the country. Our highly centralized bureaucracy (what other governor has final say over schools, hospitals, welfare, virtually all taxes and more?), makes the governor's office a particular prize.

Not that it has been much of a treat for the current incumbent, Linda Lingle, who has been handed a tanking economy and a Legislature dominated by Democrats who have no desire to do her any favors. That adds up to a rain cloud that would soak any politician, even one as gifted and nimble as Lingle.

Still, Lingle's sour experience has not discouraged folks from wanting to take a crack at the job. Her lieutenant governor, James "Duke" Aiona, is working mightily to slip out of the shadows that surround any lieutenant governor and stake his claim as Lingle's heir apparent. He is clearly the front-runner on the Republican side, challenged at this point by former state Sen. John Carroll, who has been out of the limelight for several years.

Democrat Neil Abercrombie, now weary of the travel and frustration of serving in Congress continuously since 1991, wishes to return home and cap his career by governing the state that welcomed him nearly five decades ago.

Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, also a Democrat, is clearly eager to advance his promising political career and talent for public service. Many of Hannemann's confidants say his natural goal is the U.S. Congress — perhaps as a senator — but Hannemann has made it clear to anyone who asks that his eye at the moment is on the governor's office.

At this point, it is virtually impossible to know what issues, if any, will sort out this most interesting race. Hannemann and Abercrombie, for instance, are in synch on most matters, particularly the controversial plan to build a multibillion-dollar rail transit system for Honolulu. While Abercrombie has tried in recent days to put a little air between himself and Hannemann on the issue, it would be hard for voters to find a stark black/white difference between the two on rail.

Aiona's best hope is to promise he will continue the tight-fisted conservative policies of his current boss, Lingle, and contrast himself at every turn with Hannemann and Abercrombie who will be painted as free-spending liberals. After all, Hannemann pushed for an increase in the excise tax to fund transit, an idea Abercrombie supports.

While the Democratic primary is likely to hinge primarily on personality, there are areas where one or both of the candidates could be vulnerable: taxes and construction.

Abercrombie, for instance, is vulnerable to attack, fair or otherwise, on his insistence — and he has a lot of clout to insist on this matter through his role as chairman of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Land and Air Forces — that the planned massive military buildup planned for Guam pay prevailing Hawai'i wage rates for construction workers. The same proposal insists that no more than 30 percent of the workers hired for the buildup can be foreign nationals.

That's sweet music to Hawai'i construction unions, but not to Guam officials and the military.

Some officials have said Abercrombie's plan would add $10 billion to $15 billion to the cost of the move (which is supposed to be financed primarily by the Japanese, eager to move U.S. military forces out of their homeland) and could easily kill the deal.

Meanwhile, Hannemann is vulnerable for attacks on his plan to push through with that multibillion-dollar fixed rail system, even though tax collections are down and there is a growing chorus of technical and environmental opposition. True, Abercrombie supports mass transit, but one can see him arguing that the mayor took a good idea and drove it right over the cliff.

So, while the campaign is quiet at the moment, do not expect the peace to last much longer.