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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Wednesday, September 16, 2009

MLB: Relax Phillie fans; stop worrying about team's hitting


By Rich Hofmann
Philadelphia Daily News

PHILADELPHIA — Some of it is skepticism, some nervousness, some a simple attempt to fill the vacuum between now and October. But you know you have heard it. You know you might have said it, maybe even Tuesday night.

You know: Sure, sure, the Phillies score five early runs off the Garrett Mocks and the Washington Nationals of the world, but what about when the pitching is playoff-caliber? What then?
One word: relax.
“You always worry about something when you can’t control it, when you can’t do anything to help,” Jimmy Rollins said Tuesday night, after the Phillies cruised behind Cliff Lee’s complete game to a 5-0 win over the Nationals.
Rollins was trying to explain the worrying mind-set. He said, of this lineup: “I understand the worrying. It’s human nature. (But) there’s not much to worry about.”
Not knowing the answer to the question, the test was simple enough. Take the top dozen starting pitchers in the National League based on earned run average, from Tim Lincecum (2.30) to Ted Lilly (3.05). Compile hitting numbers against that top 12 by the four NL teams that would make the playoffs today: Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers and Rockies. Stir gently. Compare.
When you look at the numbers, it is very clear that the Phillies are still the most feared hitting team of the foursome. When you look at those dozen pitchers’ combined ERAs against the four playoff teams, it isn’t close.
Phillies: 3.86
Rockies: 2.97
Dodgers: 2.48
Cardinals: 2.37
Yes, yes, the numbers are lower against the better pitchers — but why would anyone expect otherwise? Yes, yes, the Phillies hit slightly fewer home runs against that top dozen pitchers (one every 6 2/3 innings vs. one every 6°innings against everyone else) and strike out almost 19 percent more often against the top starters, but so does everybody else.
The bottom line is the bottom line. The Phillies score about a run per game more against the good starters than the Rockies do, and a run-and-a-half more than the Dodgers and Cardinals.
It is a big difference, a real difference.
So go worry about something else.
“You can break down anything and find something wrong with something,” Rollins said. “It gets to a point where I guess winning isn’t good enough. It’s, ’They don’t do this, they don’t do that.’ Well, it wasn’t necessary. If we do come through in certain situations, it’s, ’But what about the other eight guys you left on base?’ Well, they weren’t necessary for that win.
“Would we have liked to get the job done? Of course. But it happens. The bottom line is finding a way to win. What do you have to do to score more runs than them? That’s what we have to worry about. But if we started worrying about what the people were worried about, that would be too much worrying.”
In the last month, Rollins — who was 2-for-4 Tuesday night with an RBI and a run scored — has hit .258. Shane Victorino, battling a bad knee, has hit .257. But Ryan Howard has been hot for this last month (.295, 10 homers and 31 RBI), Chase Utley pretty much has remained Chase Utley (.293, seven homers and 13 RBI), Jayson Werth has continued to add to his breakout season (.300, nine homers and 14 RBI) and Carlos Ruiz has reacquainted himself with the groove that he sometimes finds (.364, seven homers and 13 RBI).
There has been all kinds of talk in the last month about what the Phillies have not been able to do at the plate, about stranding runners in scoring position and the like. And, well, yes, there is some validity to it. But they have been in such an advantageous position for such a long time — nobody seems capable of chasing them in the NL East, up by seven games over Florida (and eight in the loss column) with only 19 left to play — that they wouldn’t be human if their minds didn’t wander, at least a little.
Still, even with all of that, if you go by OPS — on-base percentage plus slugging percentage — here is the last month among the four NL playoff contenders:
Phillies: .801
Rockies: .782
Cardinals: .760
Dodgers: .752
The concern? It just isn’t there. So go back to worrying about something worth worrying about. You know, like the ninth inning.